Link not ruled out of ‘virus transfer’ to homes

Public Health Scotland (PHS) has said it “cannot rule out” a link between hospital discharges and coronavirus outbreaks in care homes.

Its latest report found mortality to be high among people discharged to care homes, with nearly a third of Scotland’s homes experiencing an outbreak.

According to PHS, 675 people died within 30 days of discharge – 14.1% of all of those discharged – and Covid-19 was associated with 21.6% of deaths within 30 days of hospital discharge.

In the 30 days after their hospital discharge to a care home, 154 people tested positive for the virus – 3.5% of all people discharged who had not previously tested positive.

The report, which is available online, states: “Hospital discharge is associated with an increased risk of an outbreak when considered on its own.

“It is important to note that after accounting for care home size and other care home characteristics, the estimated risk of an outbreak due to hospital discharge reduces.

“No statistically significant association was found between hospital discharge and the occurrence of a care home outbreak.

“However, due to the uncertainty observed, we cannot rule out a small effect, particularly for those patients who were discharged untested or discharged positive.”

Earlier this month, outgoing Health Secretary Jeane Freeman said the Scottish Government had failed in “understanding the social care sector well enough” and “didn’t take the right precautions” when older people were leaving hospitals.