What next in first minister’s lifelong campaign for independence?

The UK’S highest court has ruled the Scottish Parliament does not have the powers to legislate for a referendum on independence.

It was asked by Scotland’s top law officer to decide if a prospective referendum bill was within the scope of Holyrood, with all five justices ruling it was not.

What was the court asked to rule on and why?

Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain KC referred the bill to the Supreme Court to allow it to render judgment before the legislation was introduced in a bid to break the stalemate on the issue.

The 18-page referral, submitted in July, argued a consultative referendum did not infringe on reserved powers – legislative issues decided at Westminster as opposed to Holyrood – and was therefore in the gift of the Scottish Parliament.

What did the court rule?

Supreme Court president Lord Reed announced all five judges ruled the Scottish Parliament does not have the powers to enact the bill.

He said: “A lawfully held referendum would have important political consequences relating to the union and the United Kingdom Parliament.

“Its outcome would possess the authority, in a constitution and political culture founded upon democracy, of a democratic expression of the view of the Scottish electorate.”

What happens next?

Two possibilities are now in play, one straightforward and unlikely and the other more unclear but also more likely.

The Scottish Government could continue its push for a Section 30 order, which would see the UK Government allowing Holyrood the necessary powers to hold a referendum.

While Nicola Sturgeon said she remained open to discussions with Rishi Sunak about such a move, she would not go “cap in hand” to seek one.

A succession of UK prime ministers have signalled their opposition to such a move in recent years, with Theresa May and Boris Johnson having rejected such approaches.

The most likely scenario would be treating an election as a referendum, a course of action the first minister announced alongside the plans for the referral to the Supreme Court.

She committed to this option yesterday, saying a majority voting for the SNP in the next general election – expected before January 2025 – would be a basis for the start of independence negotiations.

It is not clear if other independence-supporting parties would follow suit.

Is a de facto referendum binding?

The short answer is no – any UK Government will be under no legal requirement to begin negotiations for Scotland’s independence.

But the issue for the occupant of No 10 would more likely be political rather than legal.