Cattle price not likely to decrease any time soon

NUMBERS: Volume of cattle on Scottish holdings for sale to remain constrained

The current prime cattle price hike of around 3-4% over last year looks set to continue for some time, according to Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).

In a market analysis the meat promotion body’s head of economic services, Stuart Ashworth, says no price dip is expected in the short term as evidence suggests the volume of cattle on Scottish holdings available for sale will remain “constrained”.

“The move to selling lighter, younger cattle, particularly steers, has impacted on cattle numbers,” he said.

“Average carcase weights for steers killed in Scotland during August were 5kg lower than last year and the numbers killed slightly higher.

“Heifer slaughter numbers also increased as carcase weights fell.”

However Mr Ashworth added that increasing numbers of cattle born in the first half of last year will reach the market towards the end of this year,

He said falling carcase weights and tighter cattle supplies have meant that over the first eight months of 2017 the UK has produced 2% less beef, creating some space for imports – an opportunity Ireland has taken.

“However, while UK cattle prices are higher in sterling terms, the weakness of sterling means in euro terms our price is lower than last year by some three per cent,” he added.

“As a consequence, Irish exporters have seen some pressure on prices in the face of a more competitive UK market.

“With prices also lower than a year ago in major beef exporting countries like the United States, Australia and Brazil and much lower than the EU average prime stock price it seems likely that Ireland is finding exporting beef to be more competitive than last year.

“Indeed, Irish producer prices are lower than last year by around one to two per cent.”

Meanwhile in many parts of Europe, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, Mr Ashworth said producer prices for young bulls and heifers are higher than they were a year ago.

This is in contrast to steer prices, which are lower than a year ago.

Nevertheless UK prime steer and heifer prices remain some of the highest in Europe and the world.

Heifer slaughter numbers also increased as carcase weights fell. STUART ASHWORTH