The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
Cattle demand defies forecasts
Good late autumn weather believed to have contributed
Demand for cattle has been better than expected in recent weeks despite a sharp increase in feed costs, according to the latest quarterly summary from Aberdeen and Northern Marts (ANM).
“Trade for store and breeding stock this autumn held up remarkably well, confounding the prophets of doom anticipating a collapse in prices due to fodder and straw shortages following the long, dry summer,” said ANM.
While noting producers’ concern over rising feed costs, the Marts’ head of livestock, John Angus, said the good late autumn weather had helped by allowing stock to be housed later than normal, with straw costs also easing since harvest.
Fears of a further fall in the beef breeding herd, meanwhile, were not being realised, with most farmers either replacing cull cows or expanding to spread overhead costs.
In that context, the main Thainstone sale of spring calving heifers saw a £69-a-head rise in prices – a move which ANM said was “totally against expectations”.
Although finishing cattle have done well this back-end, boosted by the good harvest weather and a supply of betterquality barley, ANM is not expecting a pre-Christmas surge in prime cattle prices.
That is due to cattle instead coming to market earlier than in the past, combined with a two-three week waiting list for slaughter times at abattoirs.
ANM prime and cull cattle manager Tim McDonald urged finishers to bring cattle to auction as soon as they’re ready rather than incurring an extra two-to-three weeks feeding costs and risking stock becoming too fat and failing to meet spec.
On the lamb front, ANM said store prices have risen by around £10 a head in recent weeks, an upturn in values helped by late autumn grazing becoming more plentiful.
Against that, a sharp rise in the cost of concentrates, up 20-25% on 2018, is forecast to make winter feeding more expensive.
Even so, ANM’s deputy head of livestock, Colin Slessor, is expecting numbers to be tight, following last year’s late spring storm which hit some hill flocks hard.
As a result, he said prime lamb prices should firm through to the spring.
Commenting on fears the UK could end up with a no-deal Brexit, potentially affecting lamb exports to mainland Europe, ANM said this had already hit the autumn trade for breeding stock, helping to drive prices for gimmers £10£15 a head lower than last year.
“The trade for rams held up well through the autumn, however,” stated the summary, adding that the prime lamb market is also showing signs of improvement after slipping back in September and October.