Stakes are high for pig farmers

Deadly disease could have silver lining for UK exports

The devastating impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) on pork production in China continues to send shock waves around the world, alerting pig farmers everywhere to the enormous threat posed by the disease once it arrives in a new country.

Ironically, while the latest analysis from Rabobank in The Netherlands, forecasts that herd and production losses across the whole of Asia will continue to worsen as we move into 2020, trading prospects for ASF-free pig-producing countries have rarely looked brighter.

That includes Scotland, or it should do for so long as the UK’s disease protection measures remain successful.

A publicised visit to Heathrow by Biosecurity Minister Lord Gardiner and UK Chief Vet, Christine Middlemiss to see sniffer dogs in action at the airport in relation to the ASF threat was welcomed by NFU Scotland’s pig committee chairman, Jamie Wyllie, who believes it’s just the start of giving the UK industry the protection it needs.

“Hopefully the Border force will start to roll out more of these highly trained sniffer dogs across the whole of the UK with extreme urgency and not just keep them to Heathrow,” he said.

“We also need much more to be done to raise traveller awareness of ASF at our borders through posters and the asking of the right questions during immigration checks.”

While the penalty for allowing ASF into the UK is almost too much for the nation’s pig farmers to contemplate, the commercial rewards for keeping the disease out could hardly be better.

Forecasting the continuing growth of pork exports into Asia in 2020, for example, alongside rising prices globally, Rabobank’s Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist for Animal Protein, said the challenge for exporters in all countries will be to find an “appropriate balance between increasing production, chasing high prices for exports and supporting their local customers”.

Mr Wyllie agreed, and added: “If we can stay free of ASF in the UK then we should have a very profitable time ahead.

“To be honest, I’m surprised the ripple effect from ASF in China hasn’t already had greater impact on our own market.

“If you take simple figures and say that China is the biggest pork producer and consumer in the world and that 30% of the country’s output has been wiped out, that means around 12-13% of global pork production has been lost due to ASF.”

Prospects for future growth in pork production certainly look strong across Europe.

As for what happens in the future, much depends on how successful the global industry is at improving biosecurity measures, how quickly an effective ASF vaccine is developed and how much market share other protein suppliers gain while China is down.

The penalty for allowing ASF into the UK is almost too much for the nation’s pig farmers to contemplate.