Lockdown’s impact shows plan was correct

Sir, – Dr John Cameron (Scotland left in limbo with virus, Courier, May 18) complains the current Covid-19 pandemic has (so far) been less deadly than the H3N2 pandemic of 1968-70 (popularly referred to at the time as the Hong Kong flu), and concludes the lockdown policy has been one of “panic”.

Did it occur to Dr Cameron that the relatively low mortality has been achieved precisely because of the lockdown?

The countries which are now seeing the lowest infection and death rates are those which have implemented the strictest lockdown policies, and are also those which are now able safely to begin easing them.

Those which have had insufficient restrictions, or introduced them too late, are the ones being worst hit, including the

UK, USA, Russia and Brazil.

Similarly, I am puzzled that Dr Cameron complains that UK mortality is (so far) much lower than the worstcase predictions of the computer models.

The forecast of a possible 500,000 deaths was based on an 80% infection rate and 2-3% case fatality, which was the worst of a range of possibilities modelled.

If, as it appears, the lockdown policy has succeeded in avoiding this worst-case scenario, isn’t that something to be welcomed?

He is also a little disingenuous in implying H3N2 “faded” during the second winter of the outbreak: in fact, it killed more people in Europe that winter than it had in the first – the dreaded “second wave”. Dr Richard A’Brook. 82 Thomas Street, Carnoustie.