Number of people in UK at low rate of growth

The UK population may have grown by just 0.5% in the year to mid-2020 – the lowest annual increase since the year to mid-2003.

Early indications suggest the overall size of the population in mid-2020 stood at 67.1 million, up by 316,000 on the official estimate for mid-2019, according to preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

A 0.5% annual increase would likely reflect a higher number of deaths and a continued fall in births being offset by a higher level of net international migration, the ONS said.

Total UK net migration for the 12 months to mid-2020 was 282,300 – although this largely reflects the pre-pandemic period.

When looking specifically at the patterns following the start of the pandemic in March 2020, there is a “notable change due to the impact of travel restrictions”, with negative net migration of around 50,000 for April to June.

Official estimates for the population in mid2020 will be published later this year.

The ONS has also produced figures showing the potential size and structure of the UK population at the end of 2020 under various international migration scenarios.

Under a scenario of a net migration outflow of 100,000 during the second half of 2020, the population of the UK would be 67m at the end of the year – below the early indicator of 67.1m for mid-2020, but still above the official estimate of 66.8m for mid-2019.

Liz McKeown, ONS director of public policy analysis, said: “The coronavirus pandemic has created a number of challenges for measuring the labour market, population and migration.”