Income tax rises will turn off Scottish voters

Sir, - The SNP has at last hinted at what it may do with part of its increased tax-raising powers, to be devolved under the forthcoming Scotland Act changes.

It looks like Finance Secretary John Swinney’s first major income tax decision will mirror Labour’s Kezia Dugdale’s plan not to raise the threshold at which the comfortably-off pay higher rate tax, as is planned for the rest of the UK by 2020.

Mr Swinney believes this is progressive, citing the SNP’s stamp duty increase for more expensive properties as an example of shifting the burden of taxation to the better-off.

This is undoubtedly the case, though the jury is still out as to whether the overall tax yield will be increased. If not, then Mr Swinney’s decision will be little more than selectively punitive.

The finance secretary will need to take care that any increase in income tax doesn’t drive workers out of the job market – by say choosing early retirement or considering part-time working.

Plus longer-term, the better off are historically more mobile. Why work in Glasgow when you can secure a better takehome pay in Newcastle?

Tactically the SNP and Labour’s income tax plans for those earning more than £43,600 present problems for both parties in next year’s Holyrood elections.

Tax increases are vote losers.

Few doubt the SNP will do well next May but we could also witness hardworking middle-class families shifting their allegiance away from Scotland’s two largest parties to the Conservatives.

This demographic largely votes Tory in England. Perhaps they’ll start to do so again in Scotland?

John Swinney and Kezia Dugdale