Tories could self-destruct

In May of last year David Cameron pulled off an election victory no one expected. When he got to his feet for the first time after the election in the House of Commons it was to tumultuous cheers from his back benches. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems had been relegated to fourth place in the Commons.

Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband had resigned and Labour was licking its wounds after a disappointing defeat.

For the Prime Minister, it must have seemed too good to be true.

And yet now, not 10 months later, he stands at the centre of a civil war in his party, with at least 100 of those who cheered him so gustily ready to vote against him in the European referendum.

One of David Cameron’s closest allies and friends, Michael Gove, has actively challenged his credibility on the issue of the legally binding nature of the concessions which he negotiated in Europe.

Can it get any worse? Yes it could and may just do so. Consider this.

It looks as if the voting on the referendum will be tight.

It could be 55 to 45% in favour of remaining, as it was in the Scottish independence referendum.

Even if David Cameron wins, as I fervently hope he will, the sceptics will still be emboldened. Having had the taste of insurrection they are hardly likely to fall into line easily.

A narrow victory will severely damage his authority, since he proposes to stand down before the next General Election in 2020.

The candidates to succeed him will be out and strutting their stuff.

The contest will be between a pro- European and the sceptics – Osborne and Boris Johnson: who would bet against that being the field? The king may not be dead but his demise will not be long.

And if he loses the referendum, the question will be whether he goes immediately or does he hang on.

I believe he will go immediately. He is too proud not to do so.

His authority over his party will have been destroyed. The Conservatives will be thrown into a leadership campaign which will, in effect, be a rerun of the referendum.

And the membership of the party, who now have a much more significant role in the selection of their leader, will almost certainly vote for a Eurosceptic.

After all, what else would they do given their open antagonism to the EU?

The Conservative party has a talent for survival but who genuinely believes that after the bloodletting of the forthcoming campaign Humpty Dumpty can reasonably be put back together again?

History is against them. In the 1975 EEC referendum Labour’s open wounds were plastered over afterwards but none healed.

Harold Wilson resigned and James Callaghan took over but the winter of discontent of 1978/79 did for the Labour party. There followed the triumph of the left, which had opposed Britain’s membership of the EU and which led to the SDP rupture. Labour was out of power until 1997. The truth is that the referendum is a dangerous device. It brings no guarantee of peace nor survival. It is at once both democratic and destabilising.

The Tories recovered after a fashion when they terminated Mrs Thatcher’s contract in 1990. Who is willing to bet that they can do so after June 23?

The referendum is a dangerous device

Picture: Getty Images. Michael Gove poses for a photograph with activists attending the launch of the Vote Leave campaign. Gove was previously an ally of David Cameron’s but will be on the opposite side to him in the upcoming EU referendum.