The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
Financial cloud now hangs over the PRO12
Scots clubs overshadowed by cash-rich French league
Who tore up the script for 2016-17 before a ball was kicked?
This was meant to be a season of consolidation in Scottish rugby. Build on the small but significant gains of the last 18 months, continue to nurture and develop the best quality batch of young players we have had since the 1980s.
Aim at three, maybe four wins in the 6 Nations, even imagine a clean sweep in the Autumn Tests if Australia stay as bad as they’ve been this summer.
Get both Pro12 teams into the top six, maybe sneak a European quarter-final. Keep steady on the road for Japan 2019, no surprise setbacks.
Well, two weeks ago the announcement that Gregor Townsend would replace Vern Cotter as Scotland coach next June changed everything.
Stability? You must be joking, this is Scottish rugby.
The announcement changes the landscape for the professional season which launches this weekend with the first round of Guinness PRO12 fixtures.
No quarter-finalists last year in the European Rugby Champions Cup has many questioning the worth of the cross-border league. The enormous TV deal signed by the Top 14 in the summer is a further game-changer, placing the French league clubs miles ahead financially of even the English.
Even before the TV money started to roll in, the French and the English clubs were already flush.
David Denton of Edinburgh and Leone Nakarawa of Glasgow were prised from existing contracts as Bath and Racing 92 simply bought them out. Top Scots players – like Stuart Hogg, Jonny Gray, WP Nel – will almost inevitably be targeted this season in the same way.
How does the PRO12 compete? It can’t, really. The attempt to attract franchises in the United States smacks of desperation, and it wouldn’t be a financial equaliser to the Top14 and the Aviva Premiership even if it worked.
It’s in this environment that Townsend is in his last season at Glasgow, with Alan Solomons probably in his last at Edinburgh; it’s all change in June, with the likelihood that the brief window which allowed the Warriors to win the PRO12 and potentially become one of Europe’s premier clubs has already slammed shut. GLASGOW: The Warriors had a decent stab at retaining their PRO12 title. They sent more players than any other club in Europe to the Rugby World Cup, but still led the league in tries and points and with a full complement would probably have won the “regular season” handsomely to secure a home semi-final.
The Warriors can’t help but be diminished by Nakarawa’s departure; he has been by some way the top import in the PRO12 for the past two years.
The other potentially significant loss was Duncan Weir as a reliable backstop for Finn Russell, although if Townsend’s response is to give Peter Horne more chances at 10, then this may work out well.
Any other issues Glasgow may have can be solved with some of their low-key additions or in-house as they maintain their enormous squad; a key Townsend
strategy during his four years in charge.
Another year on the clock for tighthead prospect Zander Fagerson (not yet 22) and the recruitment of veteran former All Black Corey Flynn shores up one area, front row, where they were a little vulnerable.
With their continuity, their talent, their depth and their gameplan (and the new Scotstoun plastic pitch which suits their fast-playing style), Glasgow should be a unanimous PRO12 top-four pick.
In Europe, however, they must negotiate Leicester, Racing and Munster for that elusive quarter-final place. And with Dave Rennie on the horizon, Townsend has to keep the squad focused and committed in his valedictory year.
EDINBURGH: Were Edinburgh hasty in extending Alan Solomons’ deal for another year? The veteran coach benefited with a solid start to the season, only for the team to slide down the rankings and end up no better than any of his previous three seasons.
If pre-season is anything to go by, the South African has had a Damascene conversion in what is likely to be his last season.
From the limited, one-paced game of the last two seasons Edinburgh are playing an off-loading, attacking game; they’ve gone from a team full of solid South Africans to a team augmented by a new batch of Islanders.
None of them are banner signings – one, Sasa Tofilau, was plucked from third tier club rugby with Kirkcaldy – but Edinburgh look like being at least a little more fun to watch, which should help as they move to Myreside and try to develop the kind of community experience the Warriors have built at Scotstoun.
Edinburgh have the foundation of their pack, with a considerable heft of depth to it.
Perhaps their best “new signing” isn’t a new boy at all; co-captain Grant Gilchrist has barely played for the club for two seasons due to injuries, and Solomons will be hoping the second row gets an uninterrupted run as he could be a crucial influence.
There’s good back-up behind the allinternational front row and also in the back row, even if John Hardie is being touted as a potential contract buy-out. It’s behind the scrum where their issues have been.
The additions don’t quicken the blood, but Duncan Weir will offer reliability at the problem position of stand-off, Glenn Bryce will offer more attack from fullback, and Damien Hoyland was a prolific try-scorer in last year’s attack-shy team.
The big addition for the Red and Black, however, would be a return to form for Sam Hidalgo-Clyne.
The scrum-half was the catalyst for the team reaching the European Challenge Cup final two years ago and they need him to reach that level again.
THE OPPOSITION: Connacht’s historic title was wholly deserved, and they’ve held on to Bundee Aki, who maybe succeeds Nakarawa as the best player in the PRO12, but resources have been directed at their expense into the other three Irish provinces as usual.
Leinster, despite losing Ian Madigan to France and several key names to retirement, will always be strong; Ulster have Charles Piutau as their latest high profile import, while Munster are undergoing another revolution under Rassie Erasmus after the last two were deemed to have failed. At least two Irish teams will make the play-offs, probably Leinster and Ulster.
The Welsh did not have a play-off team last year, but expect the Ospreys to correct that
With their internationals, they might be the strongest team in the PRO12, but the back-ups are questionable.
Cardiff have promised much but delivered nothing and have undergone another wholesale player clearout.
The Scarlets slid out of contention last year after the international players returned from the World Cup and Six Nations, but will entertain with a fine set of backs, while the Dragons have lost their best player in Toby Faletau and are quickly becoming the “development region”.
The Italian teams underline the weakness of the PRO12; it’s not clear Italian rugby really wants to be involved. Treviso have a batch of new imports but there is an element of clearout going on there and at Zebre. The bottom two places in the league beckon again.