From independence no vote to bring on second referendum

Plans to trigger another referendum on independence have been announced by Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Hang on. Didn’t Scots just have a referendum on independence in 2014?

Scots voted by 55% to 45% to stay part of the UK in September 2014. Despite that vote, the issue is far from resolved.

In 2016 the party won a third term in power at Holyrood, although Nicola Sturgeon lost the overall majority her predecessor Alex Salmond had won in 2011.

However, the SNP manifesto for the May 2016 Scottish elections stated: “We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.”

Just weeks after the Scottish Parliament elections, the European Union referendum saw 62% of Scots vote to remain while the UK as a whole voted to leave – the very situation outlined in the SNP manifesto.

Within hours of the result being known, Ms Sturgeon warned a second independence referendum was “highly likely”. So when would a second referendum be held?

It is not clear when another ballot would take place and the timing would most likely have to be the subject of agreement between the Scottish and UK Governments, in a similar way to the Edinburgh Agreement, which outlined how the 2014 referendum would be held.

Ms Sturgeon has already indicated the autumn of 2018 could be a “common sense” time for a referendum, but there has been speculation that Downing Street may attempt to delay another vote until after Britain has exited the EU.

Would the legislation for a second independence referendum be passed by Holyrood? And what about Westminster?

While the SNP lost its majority in 2016, winning 63 of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, the pro-independence Scottish Green Party increased its tally of MSPs from two to six, meaning there is a majority of MSPs in Holyrood who support independence.

The Scottish Government has already carried out a consultation on a draft Referendum Bill, which sets out how a second vote on independence could be held.

Theresa May has not yet said if the Conservatives would seek to prevent a referendum from being held, by voting against a section 30 order to transfer the necessary legal power. Instead, the Tories say a second referendum should not be held.