Battle-weary voters gear up for new fight

Less than three years after the last independence referendum, it now seems certain Scots will be heading to the polls again. While many will state the “once in a generation” pledge has been broken, others will point out that Brexit constituted the “material change” the SNP had warned could lead to a second plebiscite.

Voting “no” to both Scottish independence and leaving the EU left the nation in a fascinating situation – and provided the First Minister with a golden opportunity.

By the time the votes have been counted this time round, the constitutional debate will have dominated the political landscape north of the border for almost eight years. Whether or not that is a healthy situation is debatable. Many will argue our public services have suffered as a single-minded party dominated by the ideal of independence chased its long-cherished dream. However, it is equally fair to point out that the SNP’s popularity has barely been dented over the period, suggesting many Scots feel they have done a good job of balancing their priorities.

It will be fascinating to watch battle lines being drawn over the coming weeks and months. It is unlikely we will see any kind of concerted “Better Together” campaign such as that which ultimately prevailed in 2014. Then, it was Alistair Darling – and latterly Gordon Brown – who led the charge to preserve the Union. It could be argued that some parties suffered long-term damage as a result of the prounion coalition, particularly Labour which has struggled to emerge from the shadows of such a close association with the Tories.

So the cast this time round will be very different. Gone is the bombastic rhetoric of Alex Salmond. In his place is Nicola Sturgeon, who is likely to adopt a more measured style. The pro-Union side will surely look to Ruth Davidson to state the case for Scotland’s continued place in the UK. Having taken her party to second place in Scotland, she is loved by the Tories and respected by her opponents.

One thing is for certain, this time round the SNP will need to be pushed hard on their vision for independence – voters will need to side with their heads, not their hearts.