Expert views GERS with deep suspicion

Sir, - Jill Stephenson (March 28) comments on the Scottish Government’s Growth Commission findings, which, she states, warns “that there could be up to 10 years of real hardship in Scotland after secession”.

There may be difficult times for Scotland in the transition to independence, but now, compared with a rump UK ruled by the Conservatives in perpetuity after Brexit, without Scotland’s oil, relying on trade with America-first Trump, and the former Empire at the other side of the world, the prospect of an independent Scotland, with all its energy resources, including the huge new oil field west of Shetland, trading as an equal with Europe seems to me like an attractive proposition.

She goes on to speak about the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures, much quoted to prove that an independent Scotland would not be viable, which, she says, independence supporters rubbish as “falsified”.

I am not an economist, but Richard Murphy, professor of practice in international political economy at City University London, is, and he says that 25 of the 26 figures used in the GERS calculations are “estimates extrapolated from data for the UK as a whole” because the UK Government does not consider it necessary to know, in any detail, how Scotland’s economy is performing.

Professor Murphy states “it is exceptionally unlikely that 8% of the population (Scotland) would make 17% of the UK deficit” and suggests that the GERS figures should be considered “with deep suspicion”. Les Mackay. 5 Carmichael Gardens, Dundee.

It is estimated the new field west of Shetland could contain one billion barrels of oil.