Most states resigned to no-deal

Most EU member states now view no-deal as the most likely Brexit outcome.

If this happens it would close UK food out of key long-term markets in the EU-27 and exclude it from EU free trade export arrangements, while opening the threat of market gaps being filled by cheap food imports from countries outside Europe. All farm lobby organisations across the UK continue to warn that a no-deal departure at the end of October would be disastrous for agriculture in both the short and medium term, and the consequences would be worst for the livestock industry.

Concern at the G7 Summit in France over massive forest fires in the Brazilian rainforest brought threats that some

countries in Europe would seek to block the controversial Mercosur free trade deal. This is a big threat to European agriculture, but despite talking tough it is unlikely that member states will turn these threats into action. The Mercosur deal is a key target for the EU, and by the time it is implemented the present concerns over the fires and environmental damage to the forests will have slipped out of the headlines.

Other key players in Mercosur include Argentina and Uruguay, and the deal is seen as a threat to European beef, poultry and ethanol. Meanwhile the trade association representing many Brazilian food businesses has said the deal offers a unique opportunity for them to expand exports to Europe, which is seen there as a higher return market than many alternatives.

The European Commission has agreed that a number of member states affected by the drought in July can make early Cap payments to ease pressures on farmers. Payments of 70% of direct payments can begin in mid-October – the start of the new Cap financial year. Farmers will also be able to ease greening restrictions to make more feed available for livestock in the countries affected. This coincided with a warning from farming groups and others that the heatwave conditions that saw temperatures soar to more than 40 C in July across Europe will become more common because of climate change.

The European Court of Auditors is to examine whether the European Commission could make greater use of remote technology via satellites to check Cap claims.

This technology is already used in some member states, but the auditors are questioning whether the level of checks is sufficient.

Remote technology via satellites could have a greater use in Cap.