The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
Uncertainty over Brexit could cost Scotland £2bn next year
Scotland could lose out on almost £2 billion in business investment next year, according to Scotland’s chief economist.
In the Scottish Government’s quarterly State of the Economy Report, Gary Gillespie predicts a loss of investment in the country should uncertainty around the UK’s exit from the EU persist into the early part of next year.
The report compared the level of business investment expected without the lack of clarity caused by Brexit with new forecasts of how the landscape could look if negotiations with the EU continue.
Forecasts up to April 2020 show £500 million of investment could be wiped out if uncertainty continues.
Another drop of £500m is predicted in the second quarter of 2020, with subsequent quarters experiencing falls of £450m and £400m respectively.
The analysis looked at the impact felt by businesses until the end of the 2020, which shows almost £2 billion less than forecast if there was no Brexit uncertainty.
Opposition parties at Westminster are trying to extend the deadline to leave the European Union until the end of January.
The report also claimed a no-deal Brexit would pose a risk of “recession with a corresponding sharp rise in unemployment”.
Responding to the report, Finance Secretary Derek Mackay said: “Following the publication of GDP figures this week, this report is another warning of the worrying impact that Brexit uncertainty is already having on the Scottish economy and the risks it presents for the future.
“There is no doubt that any form of Brexit will damage our economy and a ‘no deal’ would be disastrous for Scotland and could push the country into recession.”