The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
Poll shows key obstacles in the way of Scottish independence
Yes, no, leave, remain – simple enough answers for complicated questions on the future of the country.
A recent snapshot of public opinion suggested most Scots would support independence if asked now.
But beyond the headline figure showing 55% support for a Yes vote there are signs the pro-independence campaign still has work to do.
When it comes to the details of crucial policies on currency, the border with England, the future of public spending and tax – even the way the question is posed – pro-union groups think they have an edge.
An exclusive look at new research by polling company Survation reveals the key issues which can push swing voters one way or another.
The debate on borders became more tangible with Brexit.
Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, which promotes an open border policy inside the bloc.
Leaving the EU as part of the UK showcased how difficult a hard border between non-member and member states can be, in particular Northern Ireland.
Now, businesses selling to the EU from Britain need to take part in regulation and border checks when goods are transported – something that wasn’t required as a member of the single market.
The poll findings show more people are less likely to vote for independence if the border is hardened with England.
Survation found 41% would be less likely to back independence in such circumstances, compared with 19% being “more likely” and 36% who were not swayed either way.
The Institute For Government notes the Northern Ireland protocol preventing a hard border on the island of Ireland is an exception, not a rule.
If Scotland rejoined the EU, it would be “obliged” to make sure goods coming and going adhered to the strict single-market regulations, essentially creating a border between Scotland and England.
Scottish businesses trade a lot more with the rest of the UK than the EU.
Exports to the EU were worth £16 billion in 2018, compared with £51bn to the rest of the UK and £18bn to the rest of the world.
If Scotland was able to join the single market it would have unfettered access – meaning simplified trade agreements with at least 27 other countries.
Scotland has a large public sector, accounting for almost 22% of the country’s employment.
In May 2018, the Snppublished Sustainable Growth Commission proposed any deficit would need to be kept at a maximum of 3%.
The current deficit in Scotland is 22% – reflecting that £36bn more was spent than raised in taxes during the economic shock of the Covid pandemic. In an independent country, the Scottish Government would be able to tax and spend across the full range of powers.
To cut the deficit to the Growth Commission’s recommendations, Unionists point out spending on public projects would need to be cut, or taxes raised.
That could explain why more than half (52%) of those polled by Survation would be less likely to vote for independence if public spending had to be cut.
Around 48% of voters polled said they would be less likely to back independence if taxes were increased.
The figure is up three points compared with the last poll.
One third did not think it made a difference to their voting intention while just 15% would be happy to see taxes go up for independence.
The pound in the pocket remains a big indicator of how voters view constitutional change.
Survation found 53% were less likely to want to quit the UK if it meant their “personal wealth” was reduced as a result.
Again, just under one third were not swayed by that scenario, but only 2% would be more likely to back independence if they took a personal financial hit.
For Scotland to join the European Union, it is argued the country would need to agree in principle to adopt the euro. However, some other member states still use their own currency.
The suggestion is frequently put forward by pro-union campaigners, who think it shores up support for staying in the UK.
The poll shows 45% of voters are less likely to vote for independence should Scotland drop the pound in favour of the euro – a policy which the SNP said it would not do in its independence blueprint before the 2014 referendum.
A recent vote at the party’s conference saw members voting in favour of setting up a new centralised bank and Scottish currency “as soon as possible” if Scotland was to leave the UK.
Either option could still leave voters unsure whether their mortgages or pensions, for example, would be guaranteed in pounds, a new currency or euros.
The polling was commissioned by the pro-uk group Scotland in Union and conducted by Survation online among 1,045 over-16s in Scotland in late November.
The research also looked at actual voting intention – but used a Remain-leave question along the lines of the Brexit vote from 2016.
Used instead of the Yes-no question from the 2014 independence referendum, it suggests 59% would want to “remain” in the UK – up two points from September.
That is at odds with a poll by Ipsos MORI for STV published on December 1 which suggests 55% would back “Yes” for independence, when undecided voters are discounted.
Scotland in Union chief executive Pamela Nash said: “The reality of leaving the UK is clear – cuts to our schools and hospitals to reduce the deficit, scrapping the pound, and building a hard border with our closest friends and neighbours.
“When this reality is presented to the people of Scotland, it’s no wonder that even fewer people back the SNP’S negative and inward-looking campaign for separation.
“A growing majority of people in Scotland want to remain part of the UK, ensuring a positive future where we bring people together, look outwards to our friends and neighbours and leave no community behind.”
However, the SNP said the campaign group lacks credibility and disputed their conclusions.
An SNP spokesman said: “Only seven months ago the people of Scotland elected a larger majority to the Scottish Parliament in support of an independence referendum than was won in 2011.”
A growing number of people in Scotland want to remain part of the UK