The West must confront its deficiencies

The sense of geopolitical gloom afflicting the West is hard to ignore as 2023 draws to a close. The year began in a spirit of hope, thanks in large part to Ukrainian battlefield successes. The Russian army had been driven back by Ukraine’s heroic defenders, aided by Western weaponry and financial support.

Some talked complacently of the end of Russia as a major power, because of the huge number of casualties it had suffered and the destruction of so much of its military equipment. The Wagner mutiny in June pointed to a possible fragility in Vladimir Putin’s hold on power.

The year ends with Putin secure in the Kremlin and doubling down on his barbaric invasion with yet more air strikes on civilians. Western aid for Kyiv is drying up, and Moscow is ramping up its own military production while still enjoying a massive manpower advantage. There is little talk, now, of Ukraine driving the Russians out of the country for good. The war appears to be heading for a stalemate at best.

The conflict in Gaza has exposed further fractures in the Western alliance. After Hamas launched its murderous pogrom in October, Israel’s allies were near-united in their condemnation of the terrorists and support for Jerusalem’s right to defend itself. But the long weeks of fighting have shown the limits in the extent of this support, with constant demands for “pauses”, “ceasefires” and “truces”.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have been allowed to harass shipping in the Red Sea almost with impunity, despite the immense danger this poses to international trade. Taiwan’s presidential elections in January could precipitate another crisis, should China use the occasion to escalate its “grey zone” provocations against the island state. Few would describe the democratic West as being on the front foot.

The great irony is that 2024 will have a strong claim to being the most democratic year ever, at least when measured by the sheer number of people set to vote in elections. Speculation is rife in Westminster about when Rishi Sunak will decide to hold a general election – with some asserting that a vote in May, after an early Spring budget ideally containing significant tax cuts, would give the Conservatives the best chance of avoiding a heavy defeat. But Britain will hardly be alone in having a major political contest in 2024.

The largest will be in India, whose general election in April and May will see hundreds of millions turn out, most probably to re-elect the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For all the criticisms levelled at his government, New Delhi’s emergence as a power of increasing significance can hardly be denied, and it is surely in the West’s interests for a democratic India to remain a friend and ally, rather than an antagonist.

Perhaps the most consequential will be the presidential contest in the United States, which could see a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Political analysts are always keen to point out that American elections are prone to dramatic changes in narrative, as front-runners fall out of favour and underdogs gain surprise momentum.

But notwithstanding his own legal difficulties and the various attempts to keep him off the ballot, it is quite possible that Mr Trump will this time next year be returning to the White House. While in his first term his foreign policy was both surprisingly conventional and broadly successful, some fear that a second could presage a new era of American isolationism.

It is possible to overstate the gloom. The likes of China, Russia and Iran are storing up immense problems of their own – the inevitable consequences of political systems that lack the self-correcting mechanisms of democracy and give too much power to small groups of people. The Chinese economy, in particular, appears to be in significant trouble, while Iran has been unable to quell domestic protests over the ayatollahs’ tyrannical rule.

Yet the democratic world needs to confront its own deficiencies if 2024 is to prove more successful than 2023. Chief among them is a tendency to prioritise the short term and to neglect vital matters such as defence spending and military-industrial production capacity. Countries like Britain will also have to be more confident about adopting a more assertive international role if other powers step back.

Over the past few years, the Government has made a good start, leading from the front in the early days of the Ukraine invasion, and signing innovative new partnerships such as the Aukus pact. Today it is sending hundreds of air defence missiles to Kyiv, helping protect civilians from bombardment. Perhaps there is recognition that the time for complacency is over.

Hard act

Self-criticism is less an affliction than a requirement in the acting profession. Johnny Depp refuses to watch himself on screen. Napoleon’s Joaquin Phoenix has reportedly viewed just two of his own films. Small wonder, perhaps, that Gary Oldman has claimed his performance in the Harry Potter films was “mediocre”. This may be rooted in a residual concern that, unlike his co-star Alan Rickman, Oldman didn’t read J K Rowling’s bestselling novels before assuming the role of Sirius Black. As the cast of Game of Thrones – few of whom are said to have read George RR Martin’s texts – may attest, however, preparation can only get you so far.