Culture war will put Trump in power

What will be the defining issue for Republican voters at the next election? The answer appears to be the same as it is for the rest of the country, and the same as it has always been: the economy, stupid.

A healthy (or ailing) economy tends to underpin America’s political trends – and it’s about more than the growth rate. In 2016, Donald Trump didn’t just tap into frustrations about economic stagnation, but a sense of unfairness and strangling bureaucracy, too.

Had the former president not turned all focus on to himself after the 2020 election by refusing to accept the result, it might have been more widely acknowledged that the Republican party performed well across the country, especially at a local level, because, before Covid hit, the economy was booming. This was something voters had not forgotten, despite lockdowns and the subsequent deep recession. But while Republicans continue to insist that the economy is one of their primary concerns, what this means exactly seems to have changed since the 2016 race. It’s no longer about the traditional economic talking points: rather, it’s about what the economy means in the context of Trumpmania.

No one has learnt this the harder way than Nikki Haley, the two-term governor of South Carolina and Republican presidential candidate, who is now barely hanging on in this race. Credit to Haley: she has fared far better than most of her rivals, some of whom were expected to go much further.

Unlike Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who simply could not translate the fame and gravitas he acquired during the pandemic to a national election, Haley has emerged as the “non-Trump” candidate. She looks like she is going to try to keep her candidacy going for as long as possible. But after her defeat in New Hampshire, Trump’s nomination looks close to a done deal. Haley would have known she was facing a tough battle: the shadow of Trump looms large and no American politician, especially on the Right, appears positioned to escape from under it. But it has been surprising just how little that voters have responded to her economic talking points. She tried hard to muster up a sense of frustration about out-ofcontrol spending habits, the unrealistic giveaways being promised to Americans, the ever-growing size of the debt. It simply didn’t land.

“Joe Biden is proving that reckless spending is the road to socialism. But he’s not the only culprit,” Haley told a crowd in Manchester, New Hampshire: not this week, but four months ago when she was already canvassing the state. “Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Barack Obama added more to our national debt than the previous 42 presidents combined,” she pointed out, which has led to US national debt surpassing $34 trillion (£27 trillion) at the start of this year.

Haley has spared few words when it comes to Trump’s record on debt, which soared by nearly $8bn during his four years in office. While a large chunk of this was related to emergency pandemic spending, debt was rising steadily in the president’s first three years in office.

Meanwhile, Haley’s main economic talking points this election season have been rooted in fiscal discipline. Her proposal to spur on economic growth put emphasis on both tax and spend: a return to a more traditional Republican offering. Yet Republican voters didn’t respond. Haley only won 25pc of voters who identified as “Republican” in the New Hampshire primary, Seventy per cent of her voters were “undeclared” or “independent”. It seems those who consider themselves in the muddy middle resonated more with her calls for a more responsible public financing. But the vast majority of Republican voters gravitated towards Trump.

So what economic vision is Trump offering this time around? Back in 2016, his version of reviving American greatness was a rather clunky mix of protectionism and tax cuts. This time, the emphasis is on the former, with an even bigger flair for absurdity.

Trump’s major economic policy so far seems to be a plan to implement a 10pc tariff on all imported goods. It’s a policy he insists “is not going to stop business because it’s not that much”, while the Tax Foundation estimates it would amount to a $300bn tax on US consumers if implemented.

In 2016, Trump led on the theatrics throughout the primaries: the rallies that went on for hours on end, the pledges that seemed to pop up overnight because they received applause. Yet there were sprinklings of serious policy thrown into the debate, certainly on the economy and developing a growth agenda. Eight years on, the promotion of serious economic policy seems even less like a consideration. It is the Trump circus that is pulling people in – his supporters, and indeed the party, seem like they can’t get enough.

‘Nikki Haley has spared few words when it comes to Trump’s record on debt’