The Daily Telegraph - Saturday
News Victories ‘not driven by support for Starmer’
Labour’s by-election wins overshadowed by collapse in support for Tories, says polling expert Curtice
BRITAIN’S foremost polling expert has warned Rishi Sunak’s double by-election defeats were not driven by a love for Sir Keir Starmer as the Tory vote fell twice as much as Labour’s rose.
Prof Sir John Curtice argued Labour’s “remarkable successes” have been “simply overshadowed” by the collapse in support for the Conservatives, including a “record” drop of nearly 40 points in Wellingborough.
Sir Keir Starmer has hailed his party’s performance in both ballots, claiming the wins prove the country is “crying out for change”.
But the Prime Minister said the results – where Tory losses were roughly double Labour’s gains – showed “there isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for the alternative in Keir Starmer”.
In Wellingborough, Labour won 45.9 per cent of the vote, up nearly 20 points on 2019. By contrast, the Tories got 24.6 per cent, down some 38 points on the last vote.
In Kingswood, Labour made a smaller gain of about 12 points, while Labour actually got fewer votes in Kingswood than it did in 2019, while only gaining around 100 in Wellingborough – but this will have been partly driven by a much lower turnout, which is normal for by-elections.
Sir John, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the Conservative losses were the “principal headline”.
He told the BBC: “There’s no way you can come away from these two by-elections, given what we know and what the opinion polls have been saying, given the recent record in by-elections, to come [to] anything other than the conclusion that the Conservatives have so far made very little if any progress in reducing the lead that the Labour Party have been having in
‘There isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for the alternative in Keir Starmer and the Labour Party’
the polls for quite some considerable time.”
He added: “It’s certainly interesting to note that the rise in Labour’s vote in both constituencies is roughly half the fall in the Conservative vote. So this is very much a set of two by-elections where the Conservatives losing is the principal headline.”
But he said Labour would be safe to conclude their chances of winning the next election are “not in any sense diminished”, with Sir Keir still “Britain’s most likely next prime minister”.
He pointed to the Wellingborough vote as a “highly creditable performance” from Labour.
“There is absolutely no doubt Labour will be delighted after pulling off very remarkable successes and the 19 per cent increase in their support in Wellingborough, in particular, is a highly creditable performance,” he said.
“But in the end it is just simply overshadowed by the extent to which the electorate have rejected the Conservatives in these by-elections, down by 21 points in Kingswood and… that 38-point drop, or near 38-point drop, in Wellingborough is an all-time high.
“It breaks the record in Christchurch back in 1992.”
Speaking yesterday morning, Mr Sunak said: “It shows that we’ve got work to do to show people that we are delivering on their priorities and that’s what I’m absolutely determined to do.
“But it also shows that there isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for the alternative in Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. And that’s because they don’t have a plan. And if you don’t have a plan, you can’t deliver real change.”
Sir Keir is being backed to surpass Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour seat record on the basis of the by-election results, a political betting analyst has said.
William Kedjiyani, from the bookmaker Star Sports, said: “We’ve been keeping an eye on the movements of the Labour Party, and given their [success] in the recent by-elections, we’ve put Keir Starmer’s Labour Party at 4/1 to top Tony Blair’s record seat total of 419 at the next general election. It seems to be going from bad to worse for Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party take the biggest hit of any previous government since the 1960s with 10 by-election losses so far this parliament. Their chances of gaining the most seats in the general election are dwindling at 7/1.”
Yesterday, Labour’s deputy national campaign co-ordinator insisted her party was “absolutely not complacent” despite the by-election victories. Asked whether Sir Keir was “measuring up the curtains” in No10, Ellie Reeves told GB News: “We’re absolutely not complacent about anything. It’s a fantastic result for us here in Wellingborough, we’ve fought for every vote and we will fight for every vote at the next election.
“I’ve been out on the doorstep in Wellingborough and when you speak to voters, they say that they’re fed up with the way the Conservatives have mismanaged the economy, people are paying more in their mortgages, we’re now in recession, people feel as though they are paying more and getting less.”