Biden recasts Netanyahu as linchpin against Iran

In return for peace deal the US is offering Israel’s leader a chance to be the face of a new alliance

EVEN for Benjamin Netanyahu, an unscheduled knock on the door from the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency will likely have come as a shock.

Yet, on Thursday evening, William Burns strode into the HaKirya military complex in central Tel Aviv for words with the embattled Israeli leader. A few hours later, Mr Netanyahu was called out of a security cabinet meeting he was chairing to take a 40-minute call from US president Joe Biden – the second in six days.

“The pressure’s mounting,” an

Israeli defence source said about the visit from Mr Burns, who had spent the days before in Cairo with Arab leaders and fellow spooks trying to bring the war in Gaza to an end.

So far, Mr Netanyahu has undermined or flatly rejected all US brokered attempts at ending the conflict, saying that only “total victory” will suffice. The US and its lead diplomat Antony Blinken have been knocked back – often publicly – at every turn.

After the call with Mr Biden, Mr Netanyahu released a statement in the middle of the night insisting that Israel will not be pressured into accepting a Palestinian state.

“Israel will continue to oppose the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state. Such recognition in the wake of the Oct 7 massacre would give a huge reward to unprecedented terrorism and prevent any future peace settlement,” he said.

The US cannot even secure the delivery of its own aid into Gaza, despite being Israel’s most important ally and providing the government more than $3 billion on a yearly basis. A shipment of flour has been blocked at the border, held up by hard-Right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, who says he will not allow it to fall into the hands of Hamas.

The White House has tried to wield a stick over Mr Netanyahu. It is ramping up sanctions against Israeli extremists and encouraging partners in the UK and Europe to follow suit. References to “international law” – and by extension the World Court in The Hague – are becoming more frequent, as are conditions on US arms exports. Mr Biden privately refers to Mr Netanyahu as an “a--hole” and is reportedly considering going public with his dissatisfaction. But as the White House appears unwilling to press the nuclear button and stop arms supplies to Israel, none of these moves have seen Mr Netanyahu budge so far.

So, a significant carrot is now being dangled in front of the Israeli leader, according to Israeli sources.

Specifically, the US is offering him the chance to become the face of a new alliance against Iran, formed with the US and several Gulf nations.

‘It seems crazy Netanyahu wouldn’t do it because it’s the only way he can salvage his place in history’

Mr Netanyahu would become the US’s point person in the great geopolitical fight of the coming years – a globally important role that would see him go down in history not just as the man who let Oct 7 happen.

Prof Manuel Trajtenberg, executive director of the Institute for National

Security Studies, said US officials had been consulting with those who know Mr Netanyahu on the likelihood of him “taking the plunge”.

“It seems crazy that he wouldn’t do it because it’s the only way he can salvage his place in history,” said Prof Trajtenberg. “Otherwise, he will go down as one of the worst figures in Jewish history. But it’s not clear if he will take it. He is isolated and the window is very narrow – just two months, perhaps, before the US election cycle really kicks in.”

The deal being worked on in Cairo goes far beyond a ceasefire in Gaza. It envisages hostage exchanges over a month or more to build confidence. In parallel, an Arab-supported rebuilding and governance plan would be activated. However, this, together with security guarantees from Gulf states including Saudi Arabia against Iran, is contingent on Israel supporting the creation of a Palestinian state.

From outside Israel, the deal on offer may look like a no-brainer, promising as it does both a solution to the Palestinian problem and a united front against Iran; but within Israel the idea of peace is scoffed at by Left and Right.

Trajtenberg says the “moment of truth” is approaching for Mr Netanyahu’s fragile coalition.

He does not need to hold elections until October 2026, but Gadi Eisenkot and Benny Gantz, former IDF chiefs who prop up the current war cabinet, are poised to step down if the current hostage negotiations collapse.

If they were to leave, political analysts say they would lead national protests demanding fresh elections.

It is into this maelstrom the CIA director walked into. He and Mr Biden know there is not enough time to wait for new elections in Israel to seal a deal and are pressuring Mr Netanyahu to act. The stick has so far failed. They can only hope the carrot is big enough.