The Tories must now fight for their survival

Try though Rishi Sunak might to put a positive spin on this week’s by-election results, there can be no denying they were a blow for a party already struggling to capture voters’ imaginations. The Conservatives have now lost more by-elections in this parliament than in the years preceding the 1997 poll.

Tory HQ may seek solace in voter apathy, with the Prime Minister insisting there is not a “huge amount of enthusiasm for Labour”. There is certainly some truth to this; turnout in Wellingborough was 38 per cent and, in Kingswood, just 37 per cent. The real shock, however, is that Labour performed so strongly after what has arguably been Sir Keir Starmer’s most trying week since taking office. After a humiliating, drawn-out U-turn on his flagship £28billion a year green plan, multiple cases of anti-Semitism by Labour candidates were reported. One poll indicated Labour’s lead had fallen by seven points as a consequence.

But one swallow does not make a summer. Whilst there has been much anger within and towards the Labour Party, and serious questions have been raised over its vetting processes, it was still able to secure, in Wellingborough, its second-highest swing in a by-election result on record.

There can be no hiding the fact that Conservative support is faltering. If any lesson is to be learnt, it is that the party cannot remain beneath the parapet, hoping that Labour makes a fatal error.

We are weeks out from what will probably be the Tories’ last fiscal event before voters go to the polls, and what could be the final opportunity to remind traditional supporters why they shouldn’t stay at home – or back Reform UK. Against a backdrop of technical recession, stubbornly high NHS waiting lists and growing concerns that our asylum system is becoming a backdoor route for criminals to enter Britain, this will not be easy. But the response to economic stagnation and by-election disappointment cannot be tinkering at the edges.

There is a watertight case for the Tories to announce major tax cuts in the March 6 Spring Budget, funded by restricting the growth of the benefits bill. Millions are languishing on working-age welfare, while those in employment face punishing tax rates. Public spending as a proportion of GDP has reached levels not seen since 1990, yet there has been no corresponding improvement in public services.

Under Mr Sunak, the Conservatives have shown they can take the fight to Labour. Last autumn, they boldly reduced government meddling in the economy by loosening net zero policies. Writing in The Telegraph today, the Prime Minister makes clear he understands the extent of the challenge. The Tories must prepare for more battles, if they are to stand a chance of winning.