We must not abandon Ukraine now

Today marks the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What began, in the Kremlin’s euphemistic terminology, as a “special military operation” that was meant to end in a few days with Ukraine’s capitulation has turned into a bloody, grinding conflict with no immediate end in sight.

This is not to say that nothing has changed in the past two years. On the first anniversary, the mood in the West was optimistic.

The success of the Ukrainian armed forces in beating back the Russian aggressors had buoyed Europe’s capitals, and deliveries of tanks and weaponry were flowing. Kyiv seemed poised for a summer counter-offensive that would send Putin’s forces scurrying for the border.

A year on, and the talk is of stalemate, or even of Ukraine’s defeat. The much-vaunted counterattack faltered against heavily reinforced Russian lines, while in recent weeks Moscow has been making gains, albeit at huge cost.

While the mood in the West has changed, however, the argument for backing Ukraine in the war has not. When leaders in London, Washington and the continent made the decision to help Kyiv, they rightly saw it as a moral imperative, but they also acted out of self-interest. Aggression in Europe had to be punished, and Vladimir Putin’s forces vanquished to safeguard Nato’s eastern flank.

This logic still holds. If anything, it is stronger now than it was at the start of the war. When Barack Obama set out his red lines in Syria, before allowing Bashar al-Assad to cross them with impunity, he set the stage for the descent of the Middle East into chaos. Today, the credibility of Western foreign policy commitments rests upon Ukrainian shoulders.

Having pledged its support to Kyiv and declared, in US President Joe Biden’s words, that the war will “never be a victory for Russia”, if the West were to go back on its word and allow Putin to snuff out a democracy, it would embolden other autocratic regimes with designs on their neighbours. Xi Jinping would certainly take note.

The complication for Europe now is the role of the United States. Regardless of who wins this year’s presidential elections, the US appears to be losing its appetite for habitually footing the bill for Europe’s defence. More specifically, it is far from inconceivable that Washington will decide to stop providing Ukraine with military and financial aid, or at least not in the quantities it has sent thus far.

This makes it more important that European leaders step up to the plate. Some, such as Poland, have already shown that they are prepared to do so, announcing significant increases in defence spending. Others still seem to think that they need not bother, or that their commitments to European defence need only be rhetorical.

Britain can be proud of the part it has played in giving Ukraine vital support at critical moments in the war, from sending anti-tank missiles and main battle tanks, to delivering the training vital for the Ukrainian soldiers headed to the front. Now, we must once again take a leading role in rallying the West around Kyiv.

Before the war, too many in Western capitals made the mistake of viewing the Russian military as far more capable than it was, inducing a fatalistic approach that left Ukraine badly under-resourced. When weapons were provided – thanks in large part to British leadership – Moscow’s forces proved to be anything but invincible.

Now, there is a danger that the West will make another error. A great deal of the strategic planning still appears to be based on the idea that the conflict could be over relatively soon. But Kyiv has lost none of its desire to drive out the invaders, and Putin remains single-mindedly committed to the war despite the massive losses his armies have faced.

This is now a war of wills as much as one of endurance. Ukraine is running desperately short of artillery shells, and the situation seems dire. Are we willing to provide the long-term contracts to arms manufacturers necessary to ramp up production of artillery shells, to deliver the jets necessary for air cover? Or having given so much, are we going to give in at the last?

As the former defence secretary Ben Wallace writes in these pages today, Russia is not unbeatable. This war can be won by Ukraine. The West must come together to ensure that it is.

Hardy perennial

Caroline Quentin has complained that “old white boys” are the face of television gardening: “I’m not going to get the gardening show I’d like.” There is little the actress can do about being white, but she forgets she is young. The British like old woman gardeners, fictional, like Miss Marple, or real, like Gertrude Jekyll, who died still working at 89, having been hailed by the Royal Horticultural Society as the “Queen of Spades”. With no television in her day, she wrote 1,138 articles and 14 books. Significantly, her pair of man’s gardening boots (memorably painted by William Nicholson) lasted nearly 50 years. Miss Quentin has a long time to go.