Putin is gambling on Europe’s weakness

More than two years since the start of Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine, this weekend will witness yet another grim milestone: the all but certain re-election of the man most responsible, Vladimir Putin. If he serves out another six-year term as president, he will become the longest-serving Russian leader since Catherine the Great in the 18th century.

Following the initial humiliation of the Russian army at the gates of Kyiv in early 2022, many believed that Putin’s reputation at home and abroad would never recover. In April that year, the then British prime minister, Boris Johnson, made an extraordinary address to the Russian people in their native language. “Your president knows that if you could see what was happening, you would not support his war,” he said.

Yet now, with Putin set to win by a landslide in a carefully rigged poll, all effective internal opposition to him crushed, and gradual Russian advances on the battlefield, few would disagree that Moscow has clawed back the strategic initiative. Ammunition crises, disagreements among Kyiv’s Western allies, and the failure of Washington to pass a vital military aid package have resulted in the perilous situation in which – as the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, put it – Putin could be close to a breakthrough.

Europe appears to be strikingly complacent about all this. Where once Britain was the most vocal champion of Ukraine’s struggle for survival, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office now seems more interested in criticising Israel’s conduct of its war against Hamas. Consumed by self-doubt, Germany seems to have given up altogether.

Admittedly, Emmanuel Macron would have us believe that he has undergone a Damascene conversion. He was previously concerned that Putin should not be “humiliated”, while he now refuses to rule out Western boots on the ground. But he may not have the credibility to galvanise the continent’s resolve, which remains strongest in Eastern and Central Europe, as evidenced by the Czech initiative to source new ammunition for Ukraine.

As America turns inward and the wider world loses interest, it should be clear to all that this is now Europe’s fight. Having consolidated power at home, Putin will be gambling that we no longer have the stomach for it.

Sick Britain

New data from the Department for Work and Pensions has laid bare the scale of Britain’s mental-health epidemic, as well as its impact on the welfare bill. Two-thirds of claims for incapacity benefits now involve “mental and behavioural disorders”, with many claimants judged to have no prospect of being able to look for work.

It was always likely that lockdown would have serious consequences for the nation’s mental health, and it remains scandalous that the effects of closing schools and universities on younger people, for example, were neglected by policy-makers. However, as the Prime Minister recently asked, is the country really three times sicker than it was a decade ago? Or is there an issue with the benefits system and how it treats those in poor health, given that it was designed for a time when most claims concerned physical health problems?

Such questions can hardly be avoided any longer. Official forecasts suggest that two million more people could be claiming disability benefits by the end of the decade.

This will not only impact the public finances, but will contribute to an existing crisis in the labour market, in which low headline unemployment masks a disturbingly high number of people who have given up seeking employment altogether. This has increased pressure on the Government to make up the numbers through higher immigration.

The danger is that the benefits system has already been overwhelmed, rendering it unable to effectively distinguish between those who might gain from help entering structured employment and those who require far greater medical assistance. That is to the advantage of no one, not least those who are seriously ill.

The latest figures should therefore serve as a wake-up call. Uncomfortable questions demand answers.

Overdone bun

Tesco is selling strawberry and cream hot cross buns. Is this not against nature – an invitation for fundamental elements of the cosmos to rebel? Of course, anyone may spread a bun with jam and cream, but this product incorporates the spreadables into the bun, with bits of old strawberry caught in the dough. The hot cross bun is already so successful that it is sold all year round. Why refashion it? At McDonald’s the horror is turned up a few notches: it now sells hot cross bun pie – a crispy pastry harbouring mincemeat and a fat blob of “butter-flavoured” cream. No wonder many McDonald’s computers failed yesterday. It was all too much.