The night in numbers Sunak’s historic electoral failure laid bare

Rishi Sunak has presided over four of the five worst by-election swings to Labour since the Second World

War.

Far from reviving Tory fortunes, the party suffered its second biggest dip in vote share in modern history in the Blackpool South by-election, dropping 32.2 points.

Labour, on the other hand, is gaining ground on all fronts. The opposition pulled off its best performance in Blackpool, taking 58.7 per cent of the vote.

At the time of writing, the party had its largest share of English councillors since 1999.

By-election headaches

The 26.3 per cent swing to the Opposition is the third biggest on record, just behind Dudley West in 1994 (29.1 per cent) and Wellingborough in February (28.5 per cent).

With a general election likely just months away, many Conservatives are sure to see this as yet another failure of Mr Sunak’s leadership.

The latest YouGov polling shows the party is even less popular than during Liz Truss’s premiership, trailing Labour by 26 points.

Under Sir Keir Starmer, Labour candidates have now achieved an average byelection one-party swing of 13.1 per cent.

Labour gains in the south

In the local elections, Labour has been making its biggest moves in the south of England.

At the time of writing, some 29 per cent of councillors in the south are now Labour – the highest proportion since 2001.

Of the councils in the south which have declared, Labour has seen the number of councillors increase by 15 per cent, outpacing gains in the north.

The Tories’ three-way battle

The Conservatives are fighting difficult battles on three fronts.

In the Red Wall the Tories’ proportion of councillors has collapsed from 26 per cent to 19 per cent.

In the South East, notably Brexitvoting areas such as Thurrock, Harlow and Ipswich, Labour has reasserted some dominance. The party saw record councillors in Thurrock, and its highest share in the other two since 2019.

And in the South West, the Liberal Democrats have made some inroads to regain their traditional heartlands, including some noticeable gains in Fareham, Hart and Portsmouth.

These combined attacks make one thing clear for the imminent General Election: nowhere is safe for the Tories.