Ten Hag and Arteta’s starts similar? They really are not

Arsenal had made progress despite initial struggles, but United show no signs of finding a coherent strategy

Sometimes, the statistics for a manager approaching his second anniversary in charge of one of the Premier League’s biggest clubs are so damning, you cannot imagine how they can survive.

Losing 24 of your first 73 league games is a recipe for the sack for a side targeting regular Champions League qualification, even if a major trophy has been collected along the way. When you seem just as far away from the top after two years as you were when being appointed, the supporters struggle to find a positive and are entitled to expect immediate change.

Fortunately for Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta, this poor record between December 2019 and December 2021 is proof that a difficult start to a reign can be overcome.

Manchester United’s Erik ten Hag may analyse his next opponent’s first two years at the Emirates and see hope. He could certainly use it as evidence to Sir Jim Ratcliffe that demands for his dismissal are premature.

It will shock many that over the same number of Premier League games, the Dutchman’s record is slightly better than Arteta’s. Ten Hag has won five more of his first 73 Premier League games. He has lost two fewer. United have scored five more goals but, significantly, conceded 16 more. Where Arteta won the FA Cup and Community Shield, Ten Hag lifted the League Cup and may yet add the FA Cup.

Despite all that, Arteta’s Arsenal performance levels never sunk as consistently low as those of Ten Hag’s United. There were certainly some bad moments as Arteta began to execute his vision. On his first anniversary as manager, his team dropped to 15th in the table after defeat by Everton.

His second full season started with consecutive defeats by Brentford, Chelsea and a particularly harrowing 5-0 loss at Manchester City, which prompted Pep Guardiola to defend his former assistant and call for patience. “I know the job he can do,” Guardiola said.

Critics thought this was just Guardiola helping out his mate rather than predicting they would be going head to head in the last two weeks of the title race three years later.

When comparing the records of Arteta and Ten Hag, I have been asking myself what the real difference is. The first point to make is the context to their appointments. Arteta had never managed before. Stan Kroenke took a risk by hiring a 37-year-old and, in doing so, committed the club to a long-term vision. Arteta inherited a team who had failed to qualify for the Champions League for three years and needed major reconstruction. High earners such as Mesut Ozil, David Luiz and Alexandre Lacazette needed offloading, as did expensive mistakes such as Nicolas Pepe. Only two of those selected in Arteta’s first game against Bournemouth in December 2019 are still at the club (Bukayo Saka and Reiss Nelson), most gone after his second full season.

Arteta’s best deals in his first two summers were forward-thinking. Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey and Gabriel have all turned into key players, while Saka and Gabriel Martinelli quickly became symbols of hope. After three transfer windows, Arteta had spent more than £82 million. Bigger deals were to come once the deadwood was out.

What impressed me most in those first two years was the 2020 FA Cup win, when Manchester City and Chelsea were beaten by counter-attacking football using Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s pace, Arteta demonstrating his tactical flexibility. He realised he did not have the players for a possession or high-pressing game. When the difficult moments came, Arteta had credit in the bank as a coach who had already shown he knew how to influence games.

He also had a knack of quickly reversing bad spells with an uplifting result. Although league form was breaking the wrong records, the cups and Europe were a salvation. In all competitions, Arteta actually won more of his first 100 fixtures than Arsene Wenger. When Arsenal enjoyed good results and performances, you could see the fruits of the work on the training ground. Arsenal took steps back to move forward. United, by contrast, made a move forward last year, but have taken several steps back.

Ten Hag took over with a big reputation because of his work at Ajax, especially when he led them to the Champions League semifinals. At 52, he was supposed to be a ready-made coach who would impose a clear vision. United had qualified for the Champions League in two of the previous three seasons and there was a belief talented players needed superior coaching and a change of culture at the training ground.

Like Arteta, Ten Hag had no choice but to use the personnel available. Over his first three transfer windows, United spent £380 million and nothing has changed, as they have bought more dead wood than they have sold. Of Ten Hag’s first Premier League line-up (defeat by Brighton in August 2022), seven would probably still make the first-choice XI. Only two have left and another, Jadon Sancho, is about to play the Champions League final on loan at Borussia Dortmund.

Unlike Arteta’s transfer picks, Ten Hag’s decisions backfired terribly, especially the signings of Antony and Casemiro. United have been regularly outclassed by rivals, losing 6-3 to Manchester City and 7-0 to Liverpool, while struggling against mid-table Premier League teams too.

Even when they have had good results, I am struggling to recall any exceptional performances with a proactive system of play. Two years on, they are not set up like a top team. They still play on the counter-attack, using lots of direct high balls from back to front.

None of Arteta’s most disappointing losses were remotely comparable to the 4-0 defeat by Crystal Palace on Monday. Worryingly for Ten Hag, the biggest difference is he is not the owner’s appointment. The Arsenal board staked its reputation on Arteta coming good. Logic suggests Ratcliffe will be more inclined to stand or fall based on his managerial pick.

A month before Arteta’s second anniversary as manager, I wrote: “It already looks like a different Arsenal to a year ago. Now, the worst might be over and they may be emerging towards the light at the end of the tunnel.”

Can anyone seriously argue the same about Ten Hag’s United?