Why Saturday is going to define Gatland’s career
Whether Lions coach is remembered as a success or failure will be determined by first Test
Saturday’s first Test is the biggest, highest pressure game of Warren Gatland’s career and I believe it will make or break his reputation as a coach. If the Lions win, Warren will be justified in sticking two fingers up to anyone who questioned his tactics, his selection policy and picking six players based on geography rather than ability. If it all goes as I fear it will then Warren has serious questions to answer on all those issues.
Yes, he may have already coached the Lions to a series victory against Australia. But they were at best a fading force, as evidenced by their recent defeat by Scotland, and the Lions made that series harder work than it should have been. His achievements with Wales and Wasps are impressive, but this is what he will be remembered for.
And Warren himself will be well aware that the entire series will be deemed a success if the Lions win just one Test against New Zealand, considering the dire predictions before the tour began. He will be equally aware that the Lions will be highly unlikely to win either of the last two Tests if they lose the first one. The All Blacks will only improve the more they play together, and the Lions’ best chance of beating them was always going to be this Saturday at Eden Park. If they lose this weekend the series will end 3-0.
Some would argue the Lions are in excellent shape going into the Test game, particularly after the win over the Chiefs in Hamilton yesterday. I am not quite so sure, and I would discount yesterday’s game entirely because the opposition were not full strength.
What I am seeing is a team based on stopping the All Blacks rather than creating chances. For that reason I expect Warren to choose George North over Elliot Daly, because he has a better chance of keeping Julian Savea quiet.
It strikes me as the old Saracens game plan, so it is good for the Lions that four of the likely front five will be from the back-to-back European champions.
In fact, the whole scenario reminds me of the lead-up to the first Test of the 2001 Lions tour. Back then we had a Kiwi coach in Graham Henry who not everyone was enthused about, and a very tense build-up with almost everyone outside the starting XV convinced we were going to lose. But what happened was the players took charge. Brian O’driscoll made two breaks, Jason Robinson scored an incredible try and we won amid a sea of red in Brisbane.
My fear this time is whether anyone can provide that moment of magic. Our plan seems to be hoping we can steamroller them up front and allow Leigh Halfpenny to kick the goals.
I certainly have not watched a single game on this tour and thought, ‘Wow, that’s really the pinnacle of northern-hemisphere rugby on show here’. The performances have been excellent defensively, very strong in the set piece but have otherwise been fairly abject and lacked cohesion.
I am also uncomfortable with the way we have talked the All Blacks up all tour. We have shown them too much respect and made out that when they put on the
What I am seeing is a team based on stopping the All Blacks rather than creating chances
black jersey they turn into figures that Spiderman or Superman would struggle to stop.
Having said all that, I would love nothing more than to be left with egg on my face again this weekend. I would love to think Warren has actually been incredibly intelligent and lulled the All Blacks into a false sense of security by making them think all we have got is an excellent pack – and then the Lions smash through them all over the field.
Failing that, I would love for it to rain heavily and for the Lions pack to just prove too big and too strong for the All Blacks. The problem, though, is that I don’t think it will happen. There has been too much negativity, saying the schedule was too difficult, the tour too hard.
It is incredibly difficult to go from “I can’t” to “I can”. That is the challenge that awaits the squad over these next few days.
It is Test time now, the reason they have flown around the world. It is also a game where Warren Gatland will be remembered as a success or a failure. I just hope it is the former.