Moral of this tale is never try to guess the future in tournaments

Belgium’s manager said it would be a “celebration” game. Never accept a party invitation from Roberto Martinez. You will go home feeling flat. England lost – but still won, in the view of those who prefer a possible Sweden or Switzerland quarter-final to one against Brazil or Mexico. The problem: England are nowhere near guaranteed to get that far, because losing to Belgium’s back-up team consigned them to a harder second-round game, against Colombia.

If winning in Kaliningrad was the aim – and Gareth Southgate promised it was – eight changes to his starting line-up was too many. And no understudy forced his way in for the Colombia match.

England have shifted from a thrilling 6-1 win over Panama to an impetus-breaking defeat to Belgium’s reserves. Never mind Brazil or Mexico – deal with the team in front of you. England’s first XI should be on a par with Colombia, but England now head to Moscow with marginally less positive energy.

Southgate, though, remains adamant that storing up energy will help England’s front-rank players. “You have to look at the bigger picture sometimes and make decisions which, in some quarters, might be criticised,” he said. “But everyone understands – in the dressing room and in the group – what we’re trying to do. We have 20 outfield players who have played in the World Cup. That’s extremely beneficial for the feeling in our camp.”

This was an England-belgium match without Harry Kane, Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard or Romelu Lukaku, so ambition was low on both sides. Yet Belgium’s improved