Japan could be in eye of storm with 150mph winds
Capital braces itself for the impact of typhoon which is at the top of the scale, says Alex Deakin
Typhoon Hagibis does not stand out in terms of its size but what makes it truly remarkable is how quickly it has intensified. Its core wind strength increased by over 100 miles per hour in 24 hours – right at the top of the scale we would expect.
There is still uncertainty about where it is going to make landfall. Due to the geography of Japan it could be a direct hit or a glancing blow. If it is a glancing blow there is every chance Tokyo and nearby Yokohama could be affected.
At the moment the typhoon is expected to maintain its intensity. It has been a category five hurricane but since then it has eased slightly, although even then it is packing winds at its centre of around 170mph, which will cause some structural damage if it makes landfall. The current forecast as it moves northwards is that it will weaken a little bit but it is expected to contain winds of around 150mph as it makes landfall on Saturday.
Japan is a very resilient place but the typhoon could easily bring down trees and cause some damage to local infrastructure.
You would also be looking at a storm surge. These low pressures lift the seas so the typhoon raises the sea level and as it moves forward it will also push water ahead of it. Again it is dependent on the geography but that can cause a big swell of water and coastal flooding. You would also expect up to 100mm of rain so we would expect flooding from that and from the coasts and damage from the strong gusts of wind.
Clearly it would not be ideal to hold a World Cup match in those conditions. The game itself would obviously be quite tricky but of more importance to the authorities would be the safety of people going to matches. You certainly would not want to be outside if the eye of the storm was heading your way.
A lot depends on the timing of the game and when the storm arrives. At the moment it is a waiting game until we get closer to when the typhoon makes landfall and where that is likely to be. In that sense the next 48 hours will be crucial. By Friday morning I would expect the authorities will have a pretty solid idea of those details.
Alex Deakin is a meteorologist at the Met Office