Gulf to ‘Big Six’ likely to grow as new rules bite
Never mind flextensions, elections, deal or no deal, what will sport look like when Britain finally leaves the European Union?
Premier League may see its competitive edge slip Brighton’s Barber says recruiting will be harder
Brexit will increase the gulf between English football’s “Big Six” and the rest of the Premier League regardless of the deal eventually secured by the Government, experts believe.
Visa changes will automatically reduce the availability of unproven young talent by a quarter or potentially more if, as expected, the Premier League bends to the Football Association’s demands to boost home-grown talent in squads.
Plunging sterling values and City worries in the event of no deal has also been cited as a potentially higher risk for lower top-tier teams and those in the Championship.
Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United are understood to have concluded they are “infinitely better sheltered” than the rest, and experts say there is certain to be a short-term drop-off in transfer activity outside the top six when the visa changes come into effect.
The Government will introduce a new, Australian-style pointsbased immigration system from January 2021 and experts believe proven players will come at a premium for relegation-threatened sides with less bargaining power.
Lawyers and experts say teams who have shown the most creativity in the transfer market – especially those more heavily dependent on TV rights revenue – face the most uncertainty.
Paul Barber, chief executive at Brighton and Hove Albion, described how “to some extent” Brexit was an entirely different prospect at different ends of the Premier League.
“We are fishing in different ponds,” he told The Daily Telegraph.
“The top clubs will always be buying the top players who tend to play for the top countries and therefore access to the country tends to be easy for them. We will have to be more creative in terms of the places we go to. At the moment it’s so vague that it’s hard for us to have a very deliberate strategy. But it’s clear that if you look at the big clubs, they are always going to attract the top talent and then the passage in to the UK is going to be easier. For us, you get the next tier, particularly with non-eu nationals, so it’s already harder for us.”
Last year The Telegraph disclosed how Leicester City’s remarkable Premier League title triumph would be virtually impossible under a new blanket points system which will treat EU players the same as anywhere else in the world.
Had this previously been the case, Leicester would not have been able to sign Riyad Mahrez or N’golo Kante, who were both instrumental in their title success.
Laurie Shaw, a data scientist at Harvard University, has found that 591 of the 1,022 European players signed by Premier League clubs from 1992-2018 would not have been eligible to be signed had they been treated as non-eu players.
This would have affected a significantly higher proportion of signings made by teams lower down the league.
Under the new immigration system, the eligibility criteria for players to join the Premier League “will arguably not be fit for purpose to sustain the ‘best league in the world’ long term,” said Owen Jones, of London firm Sheridans.
“That is because it will stifle the ability of clubs to sign the best emerging talent who would not qualify under current governing body endorsement (GBE) criteria.”
A further threat for clubs is how all Premier League teams will no longer be able to sign European players under the age of 18. Clubs have previously been able to sign European players aged 16 or 17.
Darren Bailey, a consultant for Charles Russell Speechlys’ sports group, warned that the overall effect of the changes would damage the Premier League’s competitiveness against European rivals. But, he explained that changes may help the Premier League “become more international with players from outside Europe no more difficult to acquire than their European counterparts, encouraging purchases on an even more global scale”.
With all overseas players being subject to identical regulations, it could become easier for Premier League clubs to sign young players from South America and Africa.
New eligibility rules “may also see an end to clubs immediately loaning players to clubs in territories where the work permit arrangements may be less stringent”, Bailey explained. “Fifa’s proposed new loan regulations may make this less attractive in any event.”
The FA sees Brexit as a chance to create more opportunities for English talent in the Premier League.
One source, close to talks between the two organisations, says the FA is nearing agreement with the Premier League after the governing body originally suggested reducing the maximum number of non home-grown players from 17 to 13. The league had previously been hostile to any more limitations on access to the market.
“The proposal to abandon the thresholds for work permits for all players may be attractive for the EPL who would in essence become the gatekeeper, albeit with the reduced number of squad places available,” Bailey said.
“We could see more players from academies and EFL clubs playing in the EPL. Indeed, there may be more movement from EFL clubs to EPL teams which could see more money trickling down in transfer fees, as it did pre-bosman.”
Concerns for clubs outside the top six are exacerbated by the latest media rights agreement. Forty-six per cent of all the League’s broadcasting revenue now comes from overseas, and the value of overseas’ rights for 2019-22 is £4.35billion.
The largest Premier League clubs had already lobbied successfully for overseas’ revenue to be divided up on a new merit basis from this cycle, with teams at the top of the table receiving a greater share of the cash. Previously, all 20 clubs received an equal share of overseas broadcasting revenue.