Horse’s DNA crucial when picking a Festival winner
It is not just a trainer’s Cheltenham record that should be checked by discerning punters
What matters most if you are trying to back a winner at the Cheltenham Festival? Nurture or nature? Is it a significant positive that Nicky Henderson’s current strike rate of winners to runners is 28 per cent? But should we be concerned that his best Festivals have been on better ground than we might get this year? Does it matter that Evan Williams’s strike rate is only 11 per cent? It is certainly a low hit rate for top-class yards that aim to operate around a 20 per cent winnerrunner ratio.
Or does all of that pale into insignificance when compared to the importance of the DNA inherited by the horses they train; the genes that determine how hard an animal will push itself up the finishing hill at Prestbury Park?
This year’s Cheltenham Festival Stallion Guide, meticulously compiled by James Iddiols, gives a fascinating insight into the chances of stock bred by the leading stallions.
It should be acknowledged, however, that using historical data excludes a proper examination of the progeny of up-andcoming stallions, such as Getaway, who have not been in the breeding shed long enough to build a track record.
Iddiols lists every horse in training, by the stallions he features, in Great Britain and Ireland with a rating of 135 or greater on Feb 4. That, in itself, is not necessarily relevant as to how those horses will fare at Cheltenham, but it highlights quality.
Top of the list is Flemensfirth, who has sired 31 horses in that category this season. Ten years ago, Imperial Commander won the Gold Cup after flopping in the King George. Can Lostintranslation, who also disappointed at Christmas, complete the double 10 years later for his sire? The two sires boasting the most impressive Festival statistics are Saddler Maker and Shantou. Saddler Maker has had only 28 runners at the Festival in the past decade; but they have yielded two wins and 13 places. His best chance may be Cepage in whichever race Venetia Williams chooses to run him.
Shantou has five winners and 14 places from 49 runners to his credit during the same period. But, more importantly, backing all Shantou’s runners to a level stake has yielded an annual profit for the past seven years. A truly remarkable performance.
The Storyteller may be Shantou’s best chance this year in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle. This also happens to be a race in which his trainer, Gordon Elliott, has an excellent record. So,
A £10 each-way stake on all of Oscar’s 175 runners would have yielded a profit of £153
you have both nurture and nature on your side there.
The ground will obviously have an enormous effect on the results. And in the past, it has influenced the success rate of Beneficial’s runners. On soft ground, he has returned a seven per cent win strike rate, with 25 per cent of his other runners placed. But when the ground becomes good to soft or faster, those percentages fall to four per cent and 10 per cent. There is a chance that the ground could dry out towards the end of the week, but on the first two days at least, it looks like you want to keep Beneficial horses in mind.
Another sire whose statistics should be “dissected” is Milan. If one focuses on his runners in three-mile-plus chases, roughly 55 per cent have finished in the top six. In the past seven years, his win-andplace strike rate is 25-42 per cent. Although only backing his hurdlers in the three-mile Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle is a good plan.
But one of my personal favourite sires is Oscar, who can produce horses that can go as well on soft ground as any. And his Festival record is terrific. A £10 each-way stake on all his 175 runners would have yielded a profit of £153. And if one only supported his runners in three-mile-plus chases, that return would have been much bigger.
The fact that Oscar’s progeny, which are good enough to run at the Festival, can compete so well on slow and quicker ground shows they are mentally tough and physically fast.
And given that I do not have the stamina any more to last four days and nights during a “fast run” Festival on any ground, I am definitely not by Oscar.