Forget big guns, RFU has to take care of grass roots now
Watching the opening round of this season’s Gallagher Premiership, you could be forgiven for believing it was like the start of any other. Fans at Welford Road booed anything that did not go their way; Saracens ground out a significant win away at Bristol, and Harlequins kept on running up in Newcastle.
Though English rugby needs the season to be as near normal as possible, it is not routine. We will find out how healthy the professional game is and whether the economic effects of Covid and Brexit have affected the desire and wherewithal for fans to turn out and spend as in the past.
We will find out whether the decision to temporarily suspend relegation will lead, as some have claimed, to a rash of meaningless and uncompetitive games, particularly so because this is effectively the third season where this has happened.
For what it is worth, my opinion has always been that the different dynamics with clubs, and the integrity of players and coaches, will prevent such deleterious consequences. That view has only strengthened over the last two years, with virtually no evidence of any side accepting defeat without a contest.
On the training ground, clubs will grapple with how to implement World Rugby’s best-practice initiatives, aimed at reducing the risk of injuries.
Although the details are under embargo, it is common knowledge that reductions in the amount of contact and contested set-piece training are coming. Clubs must work out how and on what day(s) they will use the reduced contact time in the lead-up to games, and we will see whether it is possible to do so and maintain, or even increase, performance.
During forthcoming rounds, we will see further evidence of how the experimental law variations affect play, and I can say with absolute confidence that there will be a significant difference between predicted and actual consequence.
There has been huge speculation over the 50:22 law that gives a side the throw-in to a line-out if it comes from a kick made within their own half that bounces in the opponents’ 22 and goes into touch. It is meant to make defences leave a defender deeper than normal as cover, leaving more room for sides to attack the outside channels.
I think this will go the way of the 40:20 rule in rugby league, on which it is unashamedly based. At first, there will be a furore about how effective it is, and teams will try it a lot. They will then realise it is a difficult skill and getting it wrong either means kicking out on the full and conceding possession at a line-out parallel to where the kick occurs, or turning over possession where there is room to counter-attack. It will be used sporadically, but with nowhere near the significance predicted.
The drop-out under the goalposts for holding the ball up over the line is a change that might encourage the ball to be moved wider when sides get close to the try line but, again, this will not have the radical effect desired. As we saw at the weekend, most sides are confident in their ability to pick and drive, and to be able to recycle ball until they score. Whether this is close to the breakdown, or wider out, depends on how the other team have defended and where the gaps appear – exactly as before.
I suspect this season will see a fairly open contest for the play-off slots, as no team look capable of mimicking the hegemony achieved by Sarries and Exeter. The obvious improvements at Leicester need to be mirrored at Bath and then you have the ingredients for a genuine multi-club scrap for the title.
All this said, it is not at this level that the Rugby Football Union or the English game needs to focus. What is of far greater importance is how the thousands of grass-roots clubs will fare and whether they can return to pre-pandemic levels.
The pressures on the junior game were egregiously apparent without Covid and have not been helped by the RFU’S refusal to ban payment of players at levels of the game where it is not warranted and is positively harmful.
Anecdotal evidence is that there has been a drop-off in numbers returning to pre-season and opening games, but the RFU must get a grip of the real figures as soon as it can and try to help if they are down significantly. The longer-term health of English rugby as a whole depends on this level recovering, and then prospering.