I fear French flair and Irish magic will end England’s Champions Cup dreams
Leicester v Leinster
Today 5.30pm
Leicester fans have waited a long time for a big home European fixture in front of a packed house. And into town roll the heavy favourites for the title. Leinster are sheer class. Leicester are a work in progress. But what a work in progress they are: a team who work so hard for each other while acknowledging there is some way to go yet.
Leinster are absolutely magical when they get their game flowing. Their ball movement, with short zippy passes, is a joy to watch.
So why is this not a done deal? So much of Leinster’s brilliance comes from line-outs. They use the line-out as a platform to get playing in the midfield and soon they have you chasing shadows. Deny them the line-out possession and you deny them the ability to start cranking through the gears.
Leicester can go to work on a few fronts here. Firstly, at home, be squeaky clean in defence, offering few penalties and therefore few chances for Leinster to kick to touch and put the wheels in motion. This is easier said than done. They will want to apply pressure to the breakdown and the ruck area but listening to the referee should be top of their list.
Secondly, Leicester can choose to keep the ball on the pitch when they kick. Not too much change here for the Tigers. They have a thoroughly rubber-stamped kick-chase game. Ben Youngs does not miss bin lids from 40 yards and George Ford has the ball on a piece of string. Kicks to compete, kicks to hit turf, kicks to turn and then the smothering kick-chase press that has become a hallmark for them.
Leicester are particularly good, but Leinster are special. It is keeping the ball off them that will keep Leicester in the game. Verdict: Leinster
Munster v Toulouse Today 3pm
I see the name Toulouse, and their half-back partners Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, and I immediately think that they will win. But then I see the name Munster and their 15 warriors and my ageing brain thinks no, there is no way they can lose on home turf.
Both have shown vulnerability. Munster were outmuscled at Exeter, yet their sheer willingness to stay in the fight saw them through.
It was a similar story for Toulouse.
Ulster, in their away leg, made life miserable for the French side and forced the mighty
Dupont into error after error. Eventually he threw an intercept pass to Robert Baloucoune who went the length and should have clinched the tie.
For Toulouse it will all be about their set-piece and their forwards’ ability to play with ball in hand. If they can achieve parity up front in the storm that Munster will create in the first half then they will give themselves a chance. Whatever the size of the Toulouse forwards and their international reputation, they will meet a Munster team who will play like men possessed. It will be utterly brutal out there.
Parity is all Toulouse need to be able to launch their plays. Once they are out in the open then the ability of the Toulousain forwards to slip and pop little passes, to lift balls into space, and to go through the guts of Munster will negate the breakdown threat. This will force Munster to retreat to breakdowns, forcing them to go back round through the gate and thus unable to slow the tempo down. Then the player every neutral loves to watch, Dupont, can go through his tricks. But it is a big ask for these Toulouse forwards. This will be Test match intensity defence from Munster. Verdict: Munster
Racing 92 v Sale
Tomorrow 3pm
I would love to be a fly on the wall for Alex Sanderson’s team talk. I would not anticipate fire and brimstone. But I would expect a wry smile and devious intent. It is exactly the sort of game Sanderson would have loved as a player. He would have followed Finn Russell around all day and got his first tackle in early – even if it was late.
This is not a foregone conclusion – providing Sale can find their defensive mongrel. Injury disruptions to their back line, losing players like Faf de Klerk, Manu Tuilagi and AJ Macginty for extended periods of time, has meant their defensive press has not been what it could be. A press that is oppressive against even the best players has been disconnected, allowing opponents to sneak out of dead ends far too often for Sale’s liking.
If they are not word perfect here then take your pick of players who can rip you apart: Gael Fickou, Teddy Thomas, Juann Imhoff, Virimi Vakatawa. Titans of attack. Fickou is the missing link in the chain for Racing 92. The calm presence in a midfield that can be glorious but under the highest pressure of European Champions Cup rugby has too often made bad decisions.
This is all about a classic English team – full of South Africans – getting in the faces of the French and winding them up, doing everything they can to slow the game down. Kicking it high. Battering players. Forcing errors. Frustrating them. But, stereotypical it may be, if this gets open and pacey then the power shifts dramatically to the French.
Verdict: Racing 92
La Rochelle v Montpellier
Today 5.30pm
One team, La Rochelle, is my new guilty pleasure. The other is a team that ruined my perfect record of selections in the last round: Montpellier. I will try to not let those two thoughts blur my reasoning. Montpellier were blistering at home against Harlequins in accumulating their 14-point lead in the first leg. The speed of Cobus Reinach at nine, the cunning of Vincent Rattez on the wing, the sheer cussedness of Zach Mercer at eight and the absolute hammer that is Paul Willemse in the second row. I was convinced their second string would fail to hold on to the handsome lead at The Stoop. I was wrong by one point.
Montpellier’s squad is outrageous. I do not wish to sound like a broken record on Montpellier, because they have a squad that embarrasses most sides, but what team they select and send to La Rochelle will tell us exactly what they believe they can achieve in this tie. With their first XV they stand a chance. With the team they sent to Quins they will get blown away.
La Rochelle did all the damage in the last round away at Bordeaux. They were fabulous. At home they were nervous, defending their lead in the first half before cutting loose in the second 40.
They have a couple of Kiwis in Victor Vito and Tawera Kerrbarlow, among their glorious Frenchmen like 25-year-old Gregory Alldritt, Brice Dulin, 32, and Pierre Bourgarit, 24, and I cannot for the life of me see how they can lose this one.
Inter-french games can be cagey, but La Rochelle do not know how to hold back. Their greatest enemy might be their own fear of how close they are to a trophy they have never won before. Verdict: La Rochelle