It is possible Mercedes could get even slower
Clampdown to limit battering on drivers’ bodies caused by ‘porpoising’ is yet another worry for Hamilton’s team
What is the FIA directive and how will it be implemented?
A statement from the FIA outlined two key areas. First, a greater scrutiny of the planks and skids beneath the cars when it comes to their design and wear. Second, there will be a limit on the “acceptable level of vertical oscillations”, though exactly what the limit is and how that is measured is still to be decided. Practice at this weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix is being used as a datagathering exercise.
This should apply to both the “porpoising” effect, which is a result of the make-up of the 2022 cars, and the bouncing that teams suffered in Azerbaijan last week. The onus to save drivers’ bodies has been put on the teams, rather than the regulations.
How might this affect the Mercedes team?
Mercedes have been the team most affected by porpoising and bouncing. This is partly down to their aerodynamic philosophy, with small sidepods that leave a greater area of the rear floor exposed. In short, the rear corners of the W13’s floor are more crucial in how it generates downforce, therefore they need to run their car closer to the ground to get the best from their package.
This, in turn, leaves them more exposed to porpoising.
Mercedes say they had largely fixed the porpoising at Barcelona, but experienced bouncing and bottoming as a result of being able to
run their car at a lower ride height. As George Russell said last week, the frequencies and extent of oscillation in the cockpit from early in the season to Baku were different.
It stands to reason that, of all the teams, Mercedes will need to compromise the most and sacrifice the greatest level of performance to fall within the technical directive. Raising the ride height will instantly lose them aerodynamic performance and downforce. Their battle to return to the front looks a lot more difficult.
It seems likely that Mercedes will fall back from Red Bull and (possibly) Ferrari at the front, but do they have enough of a cushion to stay in the no-man’s land of that comfortable third-quickest team? It might be
tight. On raw pace, Mclaren, the fourth-quickest team, are closer to Mercedes than Red Bull are to Ferrari. This should be a worry for Mercedes in the short term.
Will it give Red Bull an even clearer path to glory?
In short, it looks that way. Mercedes have suffered porpoising/bouncing and have been off the pace. Ferrari have also been affected, but have been on the pace and the quickest in qualifying trim. Red Bull seem to have got a handle on porpoising, or just have a car that makes it unlikely at peak performance.
Given that qualifying is where Ferrari have been best, and also where the cars are more likely to bounce due to the lower fuel loads and weight, it would be
reasonable to expect Ferrari to fall behind Red Bull on pace over one lap. It is bad news for a competitive championship.
What other knock-on effects may there be?
Given the closeness between teams in the midfield (about 0.6 per cent separates the fourth-quickest from the eighth-quickest on raw pace), there could be a significant reshuffle of the order there.
Porpoising, bouncing and bottoming cannot be simulated in any way other than running on track. A simulator will provide little use, and neither will wind tunnels.
Therefore, a lot of precious time could be wasted as teams try to dial in their optimal set-up, whilst not breaking the technical directive.