Where Ireland’s big clash with France will be won and lost
Ahead of their showdown in Dublin, the defending champions and world No1 team are neck and neck
Ireland: The world No1 team’s pack is in great shape. The victory over Wales on Saturday was built on a blistering start by their forwards. Caelan Doris and James Ryan both crossed and Doris made 19 tackles without missing one and 56 metres from his 15 carries. At the set-piece, Andy Farrell’s men were solid. Paul O’connell has the line-out purring (Ireland safely secured all 15 of their own, while stealing two of Wales’s), while the visitors won six out of their seven scrums. And this was without the world’s best tighthead, Tadhg Furlong, who will also be unavailable against France.
France: Italy managed to achieve parity against a hefty, brainy French pack but there are few sets of forwards as balanced in all facets of up-front grunt as France. Ireland might have the pack to match Les Bleus but it is going to be an almighty tussle. Given Ireland’s scrummaging prowess, this could be one area they could exploit. And, without Cameron Woki, France are missing a line-out jumper with world-class athleticism. Defensively, expect fireworks.
Ireland 9, France 8 (out of 10)
Backs
Ireland: After Jamison Gibsonpark’s late withdrawal in Cardiff, Conor Murray rose to the occasion. But he is getting on, and not even starting for Munster. Ireland will be without Gibson-park again on Saturday. Elsewhere, Ireland’s back line is in decent shape although the continued reliance on Johnny Sexton at 10 is an issue. With such stable foundations, though, Ireland have been able to add ever greater complexity to back-line moves.
France: There is supreme talent wherever you look but they have not been at their devastating best in the wide channels. Injury has forced their hand but question marks remain about numerous positions behind the scrum. Yoram Moefana was only solid in the victory over Italy while head coach Fabien Galthie has never managed to find a full-back to whom he can commit. And is Romain Ntamack – despite his talent – really the man to lead France’s attack at fly-half ? Ireland 8, France 7
Bench
Ireland: Farrell was at pains to say what a difference the bench made to Ireland’s win over Wales, wresting back control after a tricky third quarter. Even in the so-called problem position of 10, Ross Byrne made an impact after replacing Sexton for the last 20 minutes or so.
Red alert Heather Knight suffers a bloody mouth after being hit by a shot from Nadine de Klerk during England’s T20 Women’s World Cup warm-up win over South Africa. Knight’s side won by 17 runs in Stellenbosch.
France may be on a 14-match winning streak and have some of the best players in the world but they seem fallible
France: With injuries to some key men, France’s depth is being tested. Their bench does not quite have the same fear factor as when they are at full strength but its impact cannot be underestimated. Against Italy, Romain Taofifenua and Sekou Macalou impressed after coming on. The debate will rage as to who should start at fly-half. Ntamack showed flashes of brilliance against the Azzurri, but so did Matthieu Jalibert, who clinched the matchwinning score. France are spoilt for choice in the No 10 jersey but it may be time to give Jalibert’s more holistic strengths a chance.
Ireland 8, France 9
X-factor
Ireland: For all that Ireland are solid and well-structured, they still do not have the all-court game of France, New Zealand or even Australia. They do not have a conjuror at nine like Antoine Dupont, or a magician at 10 like Ntamack. But Garry Ringrose, James Lowe, Tadhg Beirne, Hugo Keenan and Furlong are all capable of doing something special.
France: Over the past three years, France have proved that, when they flick a switch and are in the right mood, they are unstoppable. Dupont continues to marvel, Ntamack can pull rabbits out of berets and sometimes Damian Penaud does not seem to know what he is going to do next – so what chance do the defence have?
Ireland 7, France 10
Confidence
Ireland: After a 2-1 series victory in New Zealand last summer, and an unbeaten autumn that included wins over Australia and South Africa, it is no surprise that Ireland are brimming with confidence.
France: On the one hand, France are on an unprecedented 14-match winning streak and have some of the best players in the world. Yet, they seem fallible. Since their Grand Slam last year they have lacked the authority of some of their previous wins.
Ireland 9, France 7
Total: Ireland 41, France 41