City missing Gundogan and Mahrez as transfer errors bite

Manchester City are third in the Premier League, with Pep Guardiola conceding that they are no longer favourites for a fourth consecutive league title.

They have scored fewer league goals, and conceded more, than both Liverpool and Arsenal. They have not won any of their four matches against their two title rivals, and have won just one of five home games against the “Big Six”.

Unlike in each of the past six seasons, City do not boast the league’s best expected-goal difference, a distinction that belongs to Arsenal.

City’s best might still be the best – another treble remains feasible, after all – but they have not produced their best as regularly.

Something has been missing, particularly at the sharp end of the pitch.

Some of this can be traced back to the transfer market. Just as City’s clockwork football under Guardiola has approached perfection, so the club have moved with slick efficiency when recruiting players. They had vast riches at their disposal but were forensic in their choice of targets and, for a long while, barely missed a step.

That clarity of vision and enviable success rate has wavered. Guardiola has tried to refresh central midfield in each of the past two summers, windows when prime talent such as Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice moved elsewhere.

Since 2022, City have spent £125million on Kalvin Phillips, Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes. Phillips’s City spell has been a washout for club and player, and he is now toiling on loan at West Ham. Kovacic is a high-grade continuity player, but cannot replace the goalscoring of the departed Ilkay Gundogan.

Nunes’s ball-carrying marks him out as a talent, but he does not look a clean stylistic fit for City and is yet to be trusted against elite opponents. City still rely on 32-year-old Kevin De Bruyne for goals and creativity from midfield. On the wings, Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez and Cole Palmer have been sold since summer 2022.

Jack Grealish was important during the treble campaign, offering control around Erling Haaland, but whether he has proved value at £100 million is an open question. Jeremy Doku can be a match-winner, but is erratic around the penalty area.

With the departures of Mahrez and Gundogan last summer, City lost two reliable sources of goal contributions who have not been directly replaced. Mahrez provided 15 league goal contributions in each of City’s past three title-winning