Trend on travel

Up or down? The truth about flight fares

Nick Trend

Can airfares really be going up? That was the headline of a slightly confusing news story this week when the retail price index for March was published. It showed an increase in inflation – up half a per cent – and, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the major factor behind this was a rise in the cost of flying.

What is going on? A few months ago, there was clear evidence of a decline in fares. The cost of aviation fuel had dropped sharply because of a collapse in the oil price and airlines were starting to pass on some of their savings to passengers. Now, out of the blue, although oil prices remain depressed, here was evidence that the reverse was happening.

I questioned the ONS about this and was told that the way it conducts its research seems to have thrown up an anomaly. When the ONS compiles the data, it tries to be consistent and picks the same dates in the month to compare fares. In March 2015, these had been ordinary working days. But this year, one of the key days, March 26, fell on Easter Saturday. So, not surprisingly, fares appeared to be higher in March 2016 – up 22.9 per cent, in fact – on those in the same month last year. It is a huge differential, but a completely unrepresentative one.

The ONS said that it couldn’t correct the anomaly because it has to remain consistent in the way it gathers information. When I dug a little deeper, however, it did confirm that data for the year to February, unaffected by Easter, suggests that fares are falling year on year – by about 1.5 per cent.

I’m not convinced that the ONS is measuring fares in the right way, or at least in a way that helps travellers understand what is going on. I prefer data from price comparison websites, which can provide a detailed breakdown. This suggests that fares are now falling quite sharply.

I asked Skyscanner.net to compare fares for the whole of March. In nine out of the 10 mostsearched routes, fares had fallen compared with the same month last year. These included drops of 20 per cent to Majorca (where a return fare averaged £120.57, down from £150.72) and 14 per cent to Alicante (where the fare fell from £180.99 to £155.62). Only one such destination, Dublin, had a slight increase – from £84.63 to £85.73.

Figures from kayak.co. uk suggest that fares for the top 20 “most searched for” destinations have fallen 10 per cent for the first three months of this year, compared with the same period in 2015.

I also talked to Trailfinders about longhaul fares. It said that as airlines slowly lower their fuel surcharges, fares continue to fall. The only destination showing “a very slight increase” is the United States, where demand is strong at the moment.

In fact, if you fancy a trip to one of the highestrated destinations in our readers’ awards (see pages 9-13), there are excellent deals at the moment. Trailfinders (trailfinders.com) has very reasonable starting prices with Singapore Airlines on returns to Perth or Melbourne (£629), Auckland (£749) and Bangkok (£499), all based on departures before June 16. With Etihad Airways, it has returns to Bangkok (£486); Hong Kong (£489) and South Africa (£569), based on departures until December 12. Have a look at BA (ba.com), too. Deals include returns to Beijing from £500 (this month) and Tokyo from £688 (in May). Far from being an expensive time to fly, we are seeing some of the best-value airfares I can remember.

Nick Trend is Telegraph Travel’s consumer expert