NICK TREND INSIDE TRAVEL

The coronavirus is casting a heavy shadow, but as we have seen with past crises, the British are a resilient people when it comes to travel

hen you are in the middle of a crisis, it always helps to put some perspective on things. I’ve reported and commented on many major disruptions to world travel over the last 20 years and more. Some have been pretty grim, including of course, the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Not so grim, but equally disruptive, was the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. It also halted flights across Europe and stranded hundreds of thousands of travellers.

Then there was the 2008 global recession and stock market collapse – after five or more years when travel was booming. Suddenly the world lost its appetite for going places and concentrated on trying to dig itself out of the mire. And in 2003 there was Sars, the flu-like virus which spread from China to 29 countries, undermining confidence which had only just started to rebuild after 9/11. Thankfully, it was controlled relatively quickly and the main outbreak fizzled out after three or four months.

It looks as though coronavirus may take rather longer to come to terms with. But while, just at the moment, it feels like a crisis of potentially doomsday proportions, we have faced similar uncertainty many times before. It helps our sanity and our stress levels to remember that normality will eventually reassert itself.

Sometimes, it can be hard to see a way through, but I’ve learnt two key things from all those past events. First, much of the problem is psychological. The crisis is fuelled by mass anxiety in the face of what is often a relatively low risk. Second, once people start to get used to that risk, they very quickly rediscover their confidence and perspective. As the Chief Medical Officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, said this week, if the coronavirus isn’t over by the summer it will almost certainly be so widespread that it will make no difference whether we stay at home or go on holiday.

We also know that British travellers in particular are extremely resilient – usually we are among the first to return to a destination after an attack or other problem. And the speed with which our confidence begins to return is enhanced by the immense resilience and flexibility of the travel industry.

It operates in a world of hard knocks and there are always failures. As we have seen this week with the demise of Flybe, companies already in a weak position are vulnerable. But stronger, more agile players know how to adapt. Their product is perishable. You can’t sell an airline seat once the plane has taken off, nor a hotel room after midnight. So the way to keep going and rekindle demand is to cut prices.

Combine a resilient public with a resilient industry offering lower prices and you soon have a way out of a crisis. People are always tempted by value, especially at the last minute. The opportunity of a luxury Paris hotel stay at a bargain price, or a deal to the Caribbean in a cold and rainy week in March, has traditionally been enough to start tempting us back into the travel fold.

We don’t know how long the coronavirus outbreak will go on. It looks as though it may get more serious before it gets better. But there will be a tipping point where confidence suddenly starts flooding back and all that pent-up demand is released. Bookings will surge and prices will follow, so if you are holding back from booking, you need to be alert to that.

In the meantime, it’s also worth remembering that many of the greatest trips sell out well in advance. If you want to visit the Antarctic in a year’s time, bag a popular river cruise this autumn or trek along the Milford Track or up to Machu Picchu, you still need to book many months in advance. And, before that, it looks as though there will be huge demand for

There will be a tipping point when confidence starts flooding back

UK holidays for this Easter, the May half term and the school summer break. So while there will be lots of late deals for overseas, you will need to book now to get the best of British.

In this issue of Telegraph Travel we aim to help you do just that, with our 12-page special on holidays in this country. We answer your key questions about travelling in a time of coronavirus. We also have lots of inspiring ideas for destinations to visit now and in the future, many to be found on telegraph.co.uk/ 1000dreamtrips.

Nick Trend is Telegraph Travel’s Chief Consumer and Culture Editor

Plan ahead for a trip to Machu Picchu