Why do airlines still overbook flights?

There’s one sure-fire way to start your holiday with a sinking feeling – getting to the departure gate to find that your flight is overbooked and you’ve been bumped. Though statistics from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) found that only 0.02 per cent of passengers flying in and out of the UK were denied boarding in 2015 (the most recent year it holds figures for), that’s still more than 30,000 people.

Airlines sell more tickets than seats for a reason. Between five and 10 per cent of passengers don’t make their flights and the practice allows carriers to maximise profits by selling extra spaces based on historical data, which means they can keep ticket prices lower than they might otherwise be.

WHAT IF IT HAPPENS TO ME?

If there are too many passengers, airlines should ask for volunteers at the check-in desk or gate in the first instance. They may offer cash or vouchers for future flights, as well as hotel stays. At this point, everything is up for negotiation. For people with a bit of flexibility, it can work out rather well.

“I’m one of the odd ones who doesn’t think bumping passengers is necessarily bad,” says Gilbert Ott of travel website God Save The Points. “The EC 261 regulation in Europe provides incredible rights and reimbursement, and in the US, the practice has led to people on $200 tickets getting $10,000 vouchers just to take a later flight – sometimes even on the same day.”

WHO IS LIKELY TO BE BUMPED? If nobody volunteers, airline staff will choose who not to board. CAA guidance states that unaccompanied children and those with mobility issues should be given priority. First-class ticket holders, frequent fliers on the airline’s loyalty programme, those with packages from the carrier, and customers who booked, checked-in and made it to the gate early are also less likely to be bumped.

Those who didn’t buy allocated seats, paid the least to travel or checked-in late stand more chance of being bumped. And if you fail to check-in on time, you’re not eligible for compensation should the worst happen.

Luckily, for those denied boarding through no fault of their own, there’s clear legal guidance. Under UK and EU law, you’re entitled to between £110 and £520 in compensation – depending on a combination of the distance you’re travelling and the length of the delay – if you’re bumped from a flight. If you’ve made it into the cabin, you can probably breathe a sigh of relief. “It’s quite rare to be bumped once you’re on the plane,” said Michelle Couch-Friedman of Consumer Rescue.

CAN I AVOID BEING BUMPED?

Some airlines, including Ryanair and Jet2.com, have policies not to overbook flights, so if you’re concerned, check the small print before booking.

In the future, Ott believes it will become an even rarer occurrence thanks to improved analytics. “Airlines are always looking for new ways to make money and there’s been a favourable trade recently where passengers can get the flexibility to cancel many tickets by purchasing a reasonable ‘cancel any time’ type of ancillary at check out,” he said. “It’s simpler than traditional insurance and gives customers a better way out.

“Airlines are robust data-analysers. They can look into the number of no-shows in incredible detail. They’re already pretty good at overselling cabins based on these assumptions, and AI and new analytics will enhance this.”

i Keeping an eye on the information board: passengers have been known to get to the gate, only to find their flight overbooked