The Daily Telegraph - Saturday - Travel
Five reasons to delay booking your next trip
Companies are urging you to ‘book now’ for 2024, but savvy travellers know not to be rushed, says Nick Trend
“Book now for a discount”. “Book now to secure the best room”. “Book now for free child places”. Whatever the incentive promised, the essential marketing message is always the same. But while it’s easy to see why travel companies want you to commit as far ahead as possible – they get money in the bank and can plan more easily – it is not always in the consumer’s interest.
Of course, by booking early you will be able stop worrying and have something concrete to look forward to. And for some destinations with extremely high demand, you really have no choice but to take the bait.
But planning so far in advance also leaves you at a higher risk of disappointment – especially when the world is beset by so many uncertainties. And, despite the promised incentives, it doesn’t mean that you will necessarily be bagging the best price. Those who can stay agile, ready to respond to opportunities and avoid problems when they crop up are the ones who will maximise their chances of getting decent value and minimise disruption.
Soon, when the post-Christmas booking peak gears up, the psychological pressure to book for next year will be intense. Here are five reasons not to book now, but to stay cool and calculated.
1. DISCOUNTS DON’T EXIST
As we all know so well, fixed prices are becoming less and less common in travel. Fares, room rates, even car parking charges can change by the day, depending on demand. A “discount” is normally just another way of expressing one of these adjustments; you aren’t “saving” money on some typical selling price. Lastminute price drops, however, certainly can be real and significant. That’s the way to pick up the real bargains.
2. IT IS WHEN YOU TRAVEL – NOT JUST BOOK – THAT COUNTS
The most straightforward way to reduce cost is simply to avoid travelling at the busiest times. And there is a virtuous circle. Off-peak and shoulder season are always cheaper, and you are much more likely to find availability and the sort of late deals mentioned above. If you have to travel in peak season, it’s probably worth getting organised. But if you don’t, hold off for now.
3. THE WORLD IS UNCERTAIN
War, pandemic, strikes, erupting volcanoes: we’ve seen it all over the past couple of years. Many of these problems and disasters happen at little notice and it is not possible to avoid them, even when booking late. But the shorter the time between booking and departure, the less chance there is of something going wrong. There is also the possibility that a difficult situation might resolve itself and you can capitalise on the opportunity presented. For example, this spring – after the civil unrest that had disrupted life and travel in Peru had settled down – proved to be a good time to travel there. Prices had dropped and there were far fewer tourists at key sights like Machu Picchu.
4. FLIGHTS ARE LESS RELIABLE I have never known a time when so many flights have been cancelled over such an extended period; air traffic control, airports and airlines seem to have been incapable of effective planning. Booking later won’t eradicate the risk, but it will reduce it.
5. THE WEATHER MATTERS NOW And it’s becoming highly unpredictable. Floods, heatwaves, hurricanes – unusual weather patterns are often negative, but they also offer opportunities. As I write, it’s 20C in Nice, 21C in Florence, 22C in Mallorca, and 24C in Palermo and Athens. We are in November and all are well above the seasonal average, but none could be reliably predicted until a few days ago. Given that most weather forecasts now show seven to 10 days in advance, there is a strong case for searching for blue skies and making a snap decision.