Is air travel really getting more dangerous?

i Safe landing: despite air incidents being in the news, not a single international flight or passenger jet was involved in a fatal accident in 2023

We are only one week into 2024, but it is already proving to be a turbulent year for nervous flyers, with two high-profile incidents raising questions over the safety of travelling by air.

On Jan 2, a Japan Airlines aircraft collided with a coastguard plane at Haneda Airport in Tokyo, igniting a runway inferno that destroyed both aircraft. Five of the six crew on the smaller aircraft died, but all 367 passengers and 12 crew on the A350 survived.

Days later, on Jan 7, a hole opened up on an Alaska Airlines passenger jet midflight. Phones and magazines (and even the shirt off a child’s back) were sucked out of the depressurised aircraft, which made an emergency landing shortly afterwards. More than 170 Boeing 737 Max 9 jets have since been grounded while the manufacturer investigates; the Civil Aviation Authority has demanded that all planes are inspected before they enter UK airspace.

These scenes are the stuff of nightmares, even for more confident flyers. But are the incidents of the last week anything to worry about?

The short answer is no. Despite these incidents, commercial aviation has never been safer. Only two fatal accidents occurred on commercial aircraft in 2023, making it the safest year on record. The accidents (which occurred in Nepal and Brazil) each involved propeller aircraft on domestic flights, with a total of 86 deaths.

However, not a single international flight or passenger jet was involved in a fatal accident last year. For comparison, on average 148 people die every hour in road accidents, according to UN figures. Looking at data from the last century, logged by the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives, the total number of air disasters annually (including non-commercial aircraft) has declined significantly in recent years. Last year there were 82 accidents in total, including private and cargo flights, whereas 50 years ago, when there were significantly fewer flights occurring, that annual figure was 372 accidents.

So what are the odds of being involved in an accident? The UN’s data from the past decade show that (from 2013 to 2022) there was an accident rate of 3.47 per million departures: in 2019 (the last full normal year for aviation, before the pandemic) there were 46.8 million commercial flights scheduled worldwide, with 114 accidents, six fatal accidents and 239 fatalities.

But safer skies don’t necessarily make for a smoother ride. Severe turbulence has risen by 55 per cent in the past 50 years, due to a more erratic jet stream bringing clashes of wind moving at different speeds – a phenomenon caused by climate change.

Satellite data show that severe turbulence has increased from a cumulative average of 17.7 hours per year in the North Atlantic, to 27.4 hours, according to the University of Reading. And while mid-air aviation accidents are on the decline, a study by transport authorities in the United States found that runway incursions have increased.

“We see a disturbing number of runway incursions around the world, with the aircraft entering the runway when it is occupied or another aircraft is close to landing,” wrote Adrian Young, a senior aviation consultant, in a recent blog for aviation consultancy to7o.

There are also what are known as runway excursions, such as when a Tui plane “skidded off the runway” at Leeds-Bradford airport in heavy winds and rain. No passengers were harmed, although other incidents have resulted in fatalities. These runway excursions, according to the International Air Transport Association, are “the most frequent type of accident” – but are still, nevertheless, very rare.