The Daily Telegraph - Saturday - Travel
Getting warmer: how our holidays could look by 2050
With rising temperatures and sea levels set to change how we travel, Sophie Dickinson consults her crystal ball
It is said that climate change is mostly experienced through online videos – until you are the one filming the clip. And, increasingly, it feels as though holidaymakers are the people holding the phones.
Take 2023, when wildfires – first in Spain, then Italy, then Greece – ravaged the countryside, turning villages into infernos and devastating local communities. They also left many holidaymakers turning to tour operators to help evacuate them.
It seems inevitable that our holidays will change over the next couple of decades as our weather continues to alter. People are already exploring more sustainable ways to see the world, whether through taking fewer trips, using better methods of transport or checking in to locally owned accommodation.
But these well-publicised events, coupled with a desire to avoid extreme heat or unpredictable weather, could also influence the kinds of trip that holidaymakers take. By 2050, we might be exploring new locations, switching our season of travel or admiring slightly altered views – whether of city skylines or the big blue expanse of the sea.
Below are seven ways that holidays may have changed by 2050.
YOUR SUMMER BREAK COULD BE IN NORTHERN EUROPE (OR NOT IN SUMMER AT ALL)
The traditional two-weeker of old, at a resort in France or Spain, has already begun to feel uncomfortably hot to some. According to the European
Environment Agency, the continent is warming faster than the global average and extreme heat waves are expected to become much more common. For tourists seeking a gentle glow rather than sunburn, the holiday map is being redrawn.
Northern Europe, as opposed to the Mediterranean, may well become the destination of choice in summer. Temperatures in Norway top off at between 25 to 30 degrees Celsius in July, with plenty of extra sunlight too, providing more hours for outdoor activities.
Tour operator Black Tomato has seen an increase in demand for travellers seeking trips to cooler climates, “particularly in July and August”, according to head of product Carolyn Addison.
Bookings to Scandinavia are up 175 per cent for this summer compared to last, with Norway in particular proving a popular choice.
Locals are rising to the challenge. New hotel openings – including Sommero in Oslo – are adding a note of cool to already thriving cities, while the little-known beaches of the Baltics make a quiet alternative to typically teeming Med resorts. And, quite wisely, Scandinavian countries are keen to develop their green credentials while welcoming more visitors.
If a Costa del Sol holiday remains non-negotiable, however, the time of travel might have to change. James Thornton, CEO of Intrepid Travel, has noted that our holiday seasons are already altering: the company reported an 88 per cent increase in European bookings for April and May this year. The “shoulder season”, as it is known, will for many become the normal time to travel. As well as offering cooler temthe peratures, travelling in May or September remains cheaper – at least for now.
THOSE OVERWATER VILLAS COULD BE UNDERWATER
The Maldives is the poster destination for honeymooners. It is also a reminder of the most immediate effects of climate change. So threatened is this low-lying island network by any rise in sea levels that its government has made the issue its priority, spending nearly half the national budget on mitigation measures. They are certainly needed: the World Bank estimates that, by 2050, 80 per cent of the country will be entirely submerged beneath the Indian Ocean.
Northern Europe, as opposed to the Med, may well become the destination of choice in summer
It is a matter of survival, then, for hotels and resorts to invest in environmentally friendly practices. Places such as the Barefoot Eco Hotel are keen to stress their positive impact. Alongside guest-focused initiatives such as “responsible snorkelling”, they monitor local marine life in partnership with an underwater charity and source only sustainably grown materials.
Whether the hospitality industry can produce benefits for the islands beyond their economic impact remains to be seen. Either way, visitors in the near future will find many of the islands surrounded by sea-walls (something that is already the case in the capital, Malé).
CITY BREAKS WILL BE HOTTER – BUT LEAFIER
Cities will bear the brunt of higher temperatures in the future. They act as “heat islands”, which are sometimes up to 15 degrees hotter than the rural areas surrounding them. If your holidays are usually spent marching around a metropolis, you may feel the heat.
Luckily, there are relatively straightforward ways to cool cities down. One pioneering tree-planting scheme in Lisbon cost the city $1.9 million, but provided an estimated $8.4 million worth of benefits: providing shade, reflecting sunlight and conserving energy.
Milan has followed suit, pledging to plant three million trees by 2030; in Basel, Switzerland, government officials have gone one step further by installing wildflower meadows on every flat roof in the city. By 2050, schemes such as these could mean that city dwellers and sightseers are able to avoid worst of the heat, while at the same time savouring greener cityscapes.
WE’LL TREASURE THE UNDERWATER WORLD
Across the world, new wildlife patterns are affecting the ways we encounter local species. Underwater, the planet could lose up to 90 per cent of its coral reefs (which act as a natural flood barrier for low-lying islands such as the Maldives) if global temperatures increase by 1.5 degrees.
By 2050, marine life might be harder to seek out. Diving companies already warn scuba enthusiasts about bleached reefs. Phil North from Dive Worldwide says that “in certain areas, we do have to explain to clients that shallow corals display some bleaching. It is part of our responsibility to advise clients as to what to expect on their holiday with the same care and diligence we put into the arrangements themselves.”
There is also a growing awareness among the scuba community about simple things they can do to protect underwater species: only wear reefsafe sunscreen, be careful not to touch or disturb the reef, and book with one of PADI’s Eco Centers – resorts and locations that have demonstrated their dedication to conservation. By 2050, this will, hopefully, be the norm.
TRAVEL INSURANCE COULD GET PRICIER
Last year, the Greek islands of Rhodes and Corfu were subject to particularly destructive wildfires; airlines and local emergency services scrambled to rescue thousands of British tourists. It is a terrifying prospect, and one that holidaymakers will continue to face.
As global temperatures increase, so do the dry, tinder-box conditions that make wildfires more likely – on European islands, these can be exacerbated by warm breezes and dry vegetation. This means travellers should be prepared: insurer Staysure advises keeping contact details for whoever you book with to hand during a trip. It is also worth checking documents to make sure your policy includes cover for trip disruption or natural disasters.
As travel insurers increasingly pay out for problems caused by extreme weather events, prices for premiums will inevitably rise, too. In recently published research, Alvaro Iturmendi, travel insurance expert at Confused. com, suggested that consumers are already buying more comprehensive policies while the market is less competitive due to a dip in people going on holiday since the pandemic.
SKI RESORTS WILL FUNCTION IN SUMMER TOO
The amount of snowfall in ski-friendly destinations is always cause for conversation, as our weekly reports attest. Its unpredictability in the face of climate change, however, means that many enterprising resorts have begun targeting summer travellers too.
Take Whistler in Canada: a snowsure spot in winter, it is now a good place to take a summer vacation as well. Itineraries include paddleboarding and exploring farmers markets, making use of the exceptional scenery while not, crucially, relying on snow. French resorts are following suit as the white stuff becomes less certain. Chamonix now sees many more visitors in summer than it does in winter.
These changes mark a considerable shift from the strictly seasonal business model of the past, instead opening up Alpine towns to hikers, cyclists and rock climbers throughout the year. And, as the trend for active holidays intensifies with the heat, many more people might plan summer escapes to the mountains.
BRITAIN COULD SOON LEAD THE WAY IN WINE TOURISM
The vineyards of southern England – once derided – are now flourishing. Warmer temperatures are producing plenty of lauded, refreshing bottles, and paving the way for the development of wine tourism.
That trend is not just down south, either. Ryedale Vineyards is one of the UK’s most northerly examples, situated in North Yorkshire: visitors can already make a day of visiting the vines and tasting the product there. Back in the heart of the North Downs at Denbies, walking trails wind through the vineyards and back to a boutique hotel. It is reflective of a rather promising strand of home-grown hospitality that promises more in the future.