The Daily Telegraph - Saturday - Money
What the new rules mean for your job, house sale and investments
spread out their tax due in January over the following 12 months.
However, the millions who work for themselves and were not eligible for a grant last time will miss out again. They include those who have recently gone freelance, those who make more than £50,000 a year and company directors who pay themselves via dividends.
HOMEOWNERS At the moment it is very unlikely that the Government will announce another freeze on house sales, said Mark Hayward of Propertymark, an estate agents’ trade body. However, recent announcements could have serious repercussions for property prices.
In the short term they could push values up, as job losses will be cushioned and being forced to stay at home once more is likely to increase some people’s desire to move.
During local lockdowns, such as that in Leicester, further restrictions did not curb housing activity. But a longer-term shutdown is “more of a risk”, said Lucian Cook of Savills estate agents.
Even if some redundancies are avoided by the wage subsidies, unemployment is still likely to rise. This will make buyers and lenders more cautious. The parts of the housing market that depend heavily on borrowing – primarily first-time buyers – will be more constrained.
House prices would then be hit harder by the problems that are currently looming on the horizon, which include the end of mortgage holidays, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, potential tax rises and the end of the stamp duty holiday in March 2021.
If restrictions tighten significantly, there is likely to be a return to online valuations. These can be done virtually during a full lockdown unless a buyer is purchasing with a small deposit (typically less than 15pc), although those sales will be few and far between anyway as lending is being withdrawn. There is a knock-on effect for all as remote valuations can slow down the buying process and create a backlog.
How much of their normal wage an employee would earn if they were to work a third of their full hours
INVESTORS Renewed restrictions are unlikely to cause a stock market crash like that seen in March, especially given the new support measures, said David Coombs of Rathbones, a fund manager.
But if death rates started to rise significantly there could be a “catastrophic” double-dip recession, he added.
“This scenario would largely be a replay of spring, where companies such as Amazon, Deliveroo and home entertainment firms would continue to do well. But the real money to be made in a recession is by picking the ‘ best of the losers’,” he said. “You make money by buying companies whose competitors have collapsed. For example, you want the best airline, the best retailer.”
He suggested Alaska Airlines and Next as the best options. Tourism and hospitality businesses will benefit from a reduced 5pc VAT rate until March 31 2021, the Chancellor said.
However, those who want to be more defensive should go for big brands that they know will survive the pandemic and continue to grow steadily, such as Google owner Alphabet, Apple and the London Stock Exchange, added Mr Coombs.
Paul Flood of Newton Investment Management, another find manager, warned that it was “dangerous and near impossible” to time the market.
He said those who invested in longterm trends such as renewable energy, via stocks such as Greencoat UK Wind, or in electric car firms, exposed themselves to less risk.