hey have become a commonplace sight across Britain: rows of darkly winking panels resting on rooftops, quietly generating free energy for the inhabitants below during daylight hours.
It is fair to say that the success of solar power has astonished energy analysts over the past five years. The International Energy Agency yesterday forecast that renewables will produce more power than coal within 15 years. Technically, if solar’s current rate of growth continues, its output could match world power demand in just 18 years’ time. From big banks such as UBS and Citigroup, to environmental groups and technology entrepreneurs, everyone is talking of a “solar revolution”. The sun has become mainstream, and the world is moving inexorably towards a future that is not only clean, but that also promises to democratise energy generation.
The twin stories of climate change and solar power prove that crisis can create opportunity, and on an unprecedented scale. The key question is whether we can transform our energy systems in time to avert dangerous levels of climate change. But there is a big economic question, too: how can the UK strengthen its position in a global solar market that is estimated by Deutsche Bank to be worth a staggering $5 trillion from now until 2035?
Solar output in the UK nearly doubled last year and in Britain there is now around 8GW of solar capacity installed across houses, offices, schools and poor-quality land – enough to power 2.4 million homes. Combined with unprecedented cost reductions (a 70 per cent price drop in five years) and massive public popularity (over 80 per cent in repeated opinion surveys), solar power has been an astonishing energy success story.
Unfortunately, politicians don’t seem to have woken up to the extraordinary implications. Policy changes made towards the end of the last government’s term favour more expensive and less popular technologies, and this risks stalling further growth. Other nations, by contrast, are not restraining themselves. Both India and China will have 100GW installed within the next seven years.
The Department for Energy and Climate Change’s official projections anticipate that Britain will install only 4GW between now and 2020 – as much as we installed in the past year alone. To follow this pathway would be to constrain a cutting-edge British industry that has the potential to generate cost-effective electricity at home and to become a leading player in the global market, guaranteeing jobs and revenue.
So what do we need to do to develop our solar industry?
The first thing is unlock the barriers to installing solar panels across large rooftops – factories, supermarkets, university buildings, warehouses and the like. The Solar Trade Association’s independently verified analysis shows that the UK can install twice as much solar capacity by 2020 as forecast, for only a little more than we estimate current policies will cost. This is a question of using financial support more efficiently and providing better stability for the industry. Our plan would see solar power providing 7 per cent of electricity in 2020 and accounting for 57,000 jobs across the solar industry and its supply chains.
Taking this path would mean that this is the last government that would have to subsidise solar power to any meaningful extent, and we estimate this subsidy would cost just £13 per household in 2020. This seems a very modest price to pay for nothing short of a clean energy revolution that can consign shock energy bill rises to history.
Investing in solar power comes with two other important benefits. First, solar is more “home-grown” than other electricity technologies – so every unit of investment results in a larger amount of value accruing to the UK than offshore wind or nuclear power. Secondly, maximising the power of the sun can free us from the geopolitical wrangles of importing fossil fuels. No more paying for the coal that funds Vladimir Putin’s empire; less dependence on gas imported from the Middle East.
Combined with rapidly improving energy storage as batteries improve, as well as “smart grids” that respond intelligently to consumer and supplier demands, a clean energy technology future is within our grasp.
But the next few years will be crucial. Ernst & Young’s recent Renewable Energy Attractiveness Index saw the UK slipping out of the world top 10 countries for solar investment. The UK has the furthest to go of all countries in Europe to meet its 2020 renewable energy targets. The new Government has a golden opportunity to embrace the solar-powered future as so many others are doing, with consistent, efficient policies that cultivate our domestic industry and remove the need for subsidies. Huge public popularity, costs that could fall below new gas generation in just a couple of years, stable energy bills and climate security. If this isn’t a bright future, what is?