Voters favour quitting EU over staying in
VOTERS would back Brexit if the referendum were held today, according to a new poll published while David Cameron was locked in EU renegotiation talks.
The poll of around 1,100 people found that 39 per cent of those expecting to vote backed leaving the EU, while 36 per cent wanted to remain in. The survey also revealed that almost three times more people believe the Prime Minister’s renegotiation has been unsuccessful than successful.
The TNS poll, taken between Feb 11 and 15, highlights the difficulty Mr Cameron faces in winning public support for his package of reforms.
Polls judging where the public sits on the in-out referendum over EU membership have been erratic in recent months, with both sides being given sizeable leads at times.
Experts point to the fact that many voters have yet to engage with the debate and differences between phone and online surveys – the latter tends to find more Eurosceptics – to explain the differences.
The high proportion of undecided voters also adds to the volatility, with as many as one in four saying they do not know which side to back.
According to an independent poll of polls, the “Remain” camp enjoys a small lead over the “Leave” camp – by 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
All sides agree that last summer there was a spike in support for Brexit after the refugee crisis and attempts by migrants to storm the Channel Tunnel.
Concerns over immigration and sovereignty tend to overlap with support for pulling out of the EU while those worried about the state of the economy are more likely to back staying in.
Pro-EU campaigners are banking on a surge in support for membership when voters begin focusing on the choice at hand.
Analysis of recent referendums held across the world shows there is normally a late swing towards the status quo, as ultimately happened in the Scottish independence vote.
The TNS survey published yesterday found that those who want to leave outnumber those who want to remain, and did not include people who said they will not vote. However, the num- bers switched when respondents were asked to predict which side would win, with more people forecasting Britain would ultimately stay in the EU.
In findings that will worry No 10, the survey also detected strong disillusionment among voters towards the Prime Minister’s renegotiation package.
Some 37 per cent said the negotiation had been unsuccessful while just 14 per cent said it had been successful. Just one in 50 people asked said the negotiations had been “very successful”.
The poll also shows that while Brexit supporters clearly outweigh pro-EU backers among the over-55s, the oppo- site is true for 18-24-year-olds – a finding consistent with other polls.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University and a leading psephologist, said earlier this week that polls suggest Britons were unimpressed with the renegotiation.
“The publication of the draft renegotiation agreement at the beginning of this month has failed to move public opinion in favour of staying in the EU,” he wrote.
Prof Curtice added: “Voters appear inclined to feel that the draft agreement represents a bad deal, and have little confidence that you will end up with a good one.”