We need to remain in for our own peace and security – and to save the United Kingdom

AS ALL the confusion, delays and dramas of last week’s Brussels summit subside, it is worth looking at what happened there compared with the innumerable summits of previous decades. This one stands out because David Cameron did something no previous British prime minister has done: he came back with the European Union less powerful over the affairs of the UK than when he arrived, and left it with considerably weaker prospects of increasing its power in the future.

For decades, his predecessors have fought rearguard actions against new powers and rights for the EU. He is the first to have turned the pressure the other way around. Coming on top of securing a reduction in the EU’s budget, this entitles him to rather more praise than he often receives. Few – if any – EU leaders can still be under the illusion that Britain can be dragooned into a more centralised union.

And if they ever do seek more powers over the UK in a new treaty, it has been British law since 2011 that a referendum of the British people – yes, another one – would be required.

All in all, this Prime Minister has made my own slogan when I was party leader, “In Europe, not run by Europe”, a viable possibility.

Like many Conservatives, I could be on either side on June 23, but what tips me into voting to stay in the EU is partly the opportunity David Cameron has created, and partly three serious concerns on the effect of a British exit.

The first is my strong belief that if the UK leaves the EU, Scotland is much more likely to leave the UK. How would we feel about freeing ourselves from Europe if our own country disintegrated as a result?

The only real answer I’ve heard is that the oil price is too low for Scottish independence. But would anyone bet their house on what the price will be in two or three years? It is quite a risk to bet the entire kingdom on it.

Second, we need some kind of European Union to exist whether we are in it or not. Otherwise, Europe’s seething nationalisms and tensions will break loose again, as they did in the Balkans in the Nineties. Britain needs most European countries to be anchored in a formal grouping, for the sake of our own long-term peace and security. Departing from it would undoubtedly weaken it, and the consequences of that are unknowable.

My third concern would be about business. If we left the single market, the effect on business confidence and investment would be very damaging. But if we stay, we would have to keep its rules, regulations, payments and freedom of movement. The key difference would be we would no longer have any say over those things.

The Prime Minister is doing the right thing in giving this choice to the British people, but he is giving them the right recommendation, as well.