Brexit big beasts draw battle lines in Tory leadership race

BORIS JOHNSON and Michael Gove deciding to back leaving the European Union will not just electrify the referendum campaign.

It also looks likely to be a key factor in who becomes the next Conservative Party leader after David Cameron steps down ahead of the 2020 election.

Until now, George Osborne has been seen as the comfortable favourite to succeed Mr Cameron.

He commands the support of a significant portion of the Parliamentary party and has used his patronage wisely – installing allies and potential supporters in key Government posts.

However, after a bruising referendum battle that is certain to divide the Conservative Party, it now seems the leadership race will be a contest between the Eurosceptics and the Europhiles.

On one side will be Mr Johnson and Mr Gove as his de facto deputy. On the other, Mr Osborne and Sajid Javid, whose own leadership ambitions look to have been torpedoed by his decision to back the “Remain” campaign in spite of his own Eurosceptic views.

Theresa May, the Home Secretary, is a wildcard. It was a common view in Westminster that she would only have been a contender if she had decided to back the Out campaign.

However, one thing the leadership race does need is a female candidate, so she should not be entirely discounted just because of her decision to support the Prime Minister.

Priti Patel, who joined the “Leave” campaign in the minutes after Mr Cameron called the referendum, will also be seen as a potential leader.

Whether or not Britain votes to remain in the EU, Mr Johnson will still be championed by the largely Eurosceptic grassroots of the party. If Britain leaves, he will be a hero to Eurosceptic MPs and party members.

If Britain stays in the bloc, he will be the man who tried to stick up for Eurosceptic principles but narrowly failed. In either scenario, he will be Mr Osborne’s biggest rival in the leadership election.

Mr Cameron will in the coming months have a decision to take which could make or break both Mr Johnson and Mr Osborne, his closest political ally. He will conduct a “unity reshuffle” after the referendum, promoting Eurosceptics to key positions in a bid to rebuild the party.

Before Mr Johnson’s decision, the Prime Minister had made clear that the Mayor would get a significant Cabinet post in the reshuffle.

If Mr Cameron does not give Mr Johnson a top job, it will be seen as a decision motivated by revenge that may increase his rival’s chances of succeeding him.

Promoting him to a key position – Home Secretary for example – allows him to use a senior role to show Britain why he should lead the party and become prime minister.

What is certain is that Mr Johnson’s decision to back a “Brexit” will have far-reaching consequences for both him and the Conservative Party.