The Leave campaign has its work cut out
Many households will this week receive the Government’s pamphlet espousing the virtues of EU membership and warning of the dark consequences of a vote to leave on June 23. Our leaders could have saved the taxpayer the £9 million it cost to print and distribute: the International Monetary Fund did the job for them yesterday for free. In its latest outlook, the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth prospects and warned that a Brexit would have potentially baleful consequences for the world economy and European stability. This was an extraordinary intervention by an international body at a critical time in the debate about Britain’s future in the EU. Indeed, it was so one-sided and its prognosis so apocalyptic that Leave campaigners suspect, without any corroborating evidence, collusion between the Treasury and the IMF.
The report stated that were the UK to leave it would cause “severe regional and global damage” and present “major challenges” for the UK and the rest of Europe. Already, the referendum was creating uncertainty for investors; a vote to leave could only heighten this. The IMF said negotiations on post-exit arrangements would be protracted, increasing financial market volatility. It also believes Brexit would “disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows” and restrict benefits from economic co-operation and integration, such as those resulting from economies of scale.
The Leave campaign say the IMF has been consistently wrong in its past forecasts and is “talking down” the UK. But that is hardly the point. What this does is to feed into the so-called Project Fear that is the main thrust of their opponents’ campaign. The more the seeds of doubt can be sown in voters’ minds, the more likely they are to err on the side of caution and vote to Remain.
Tomorrow, the referendum campaign officially begins and the Electoral Commission is due to designate one of the competing Leave organisations as the lead group. Once that has happened, there needs to be a detailed explanation of how Britain could detach itself from the EU, how long it would take and the likely result. The propaganda pamphlet issued by the Government, President Obama’s forthcoming visit to bolster the Remain campaign and the IMF warnings should convince them of the fight they have on their hands.