Sharper campaign has helped Brexit camp, but a lead still eludes them

Significant gains on most questions for the Leave campaign, writes Sir Lynton Crosby in his latest poll analysis

THIS week’s ORB poll for The Daily

Telegraph suggests that the Leave campaign’s increasing focus on lack of control over immigration and associated message discipline has helped their case.

The effectiveness of this improved clarity and emphasis is demonstrated by the four point rise, to 46 per cent, in the Leave campaign’s vote share among Definite Voters in this poll. The Remain campaign’s vote share has correspondingly fallen by four points to 51 per cent. As always, caution must be exercised with one poll and it is possible that last week’s, which showed strong gains for Remain, may have been overly positive for the Remain camp but there have been significant lifts in most factors for the Leave case.

While the Leave campaign has persuaded more voters of the benefits of Brexit, they are not yet locked in. Unsurprisingly, given the increase in the Leave camp’s vote share, the proportion of Leave voters who are likely to change their mind has also increased – up two points to 14 per cent. While this ORB poll shows the Leave campaign are being more effective, they will need to continue to campaign with the same effort over the coming weeks if they are to bridge the vote gap. The ORB research demonstrates where Leave have made progress. Their net lead over Remain on immigration has increased by eight points (to +29) with a majority (52 per cent) of voters believing Leave have the right position on the issue. The Leave campaign have also neutralised terrorism as an issue with 35 per cent of voters saying Remain expose the UK to a greater risk of terrorism and 35 per cent of voters saying the same of the Leave campaign – a net nine point change since the previous wave of research. And the Leave campaign have also reduced their deficit on the economy and jobs – from 21 and 15 points behind to nine and seven behind respectively. On “running the best campaign with a clear message”, Leave have improved by five points to 30 per cent while Remain have fallen by nine points to 35 per cent. On “seeming credible and trustworthy” the Leave campaign have improved by five points to 32 per cent while Remain’s position has deteriorated by seven points, to 39 per cent. Similarly, on “are providing you with the information you need to make a decision”, Leave have improved by six points to 28 per cent while Remain fell by eleven points to 31. Despite the drop-off in the Remain campaign’s support, they do still lead on both vote and the metrics about campaign performance detailed above and thus hold a strong position with less than four weeks to go.

However, as I have highlighted numerous times previously, the expectations of a victory pose a major risk to the Britain Stronger In Europe campaign. This ORB poll shows that even though there has been a six point drop in expectations of Britain voting to stay in the EU, a strong majority (59 per cent) of voters expects this to be the case.

Among Remain voters, the proportion is even higher with over three quarters (77 per cent) expecting a Remain victory. This raises the prospect that Remain voters might not be motivated to show up on June 23. Driving home the importance of every vote in deciding the outcome should be a major strategic aim of the Remain campaign over the next three weeks.

The reality is that at this stage, the Leave and Remain campaigns have two different strategic imperatives. The challenge for the Remain campaign is to identify and motivate their voters to actually show up.

Twice as many voters in this poll cite Leave as a risk, as think remaining in the EU is a risk. This could continue to be the best way to motivate Remain voters to turn up. The challenge for Leave is to persuade more voters of their position. Their existing voters are more motivated but they need more voters to be convinced that voting out offers something better.

In my experience, it is with about three weeks to go when voters start to pay real attention to the choice they are being asked to make. Whatever they feel about what they have been doing, now is the time for both campaigns to put in the hard work.

‘A majority of voters believes the Leave campaign have the right position on the issue of immigration’