EU vote goes down to the wire

Last Telegraph poll shows outcome of referendum is still uncertain despite surge towards Remain

THE European Union referendum will “come down to the wire” after a surge of support among those certain to back Remain in the final days of the campaign, David Cameron’s election strategist says today.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph just three days before the country goes to the polls, Sir Lynton Crosby says the result of the referendum is still uncertain despite the boost for Remain.

His comments come in an analysis of a poll for this newspaper which shows that among those who say they will definitely vote, the Prime Minister’s Remain campaign now has a sevenpoint lead, with 53 per cent of the vote compared to Leave’s 46 per cent. Last week, Leave was one point ahead in the poll, its first lead since March.

However, among all British voters, Remain has just a two-point lead on 49 per cent of the vote compared to Leave on 47 per cent, the smallest the gap has been since these polls began in March.

The surge for Remain comes in the wake of the murder of Jo Cox, the Labour MP, on Thursday last week.

The poll suggests that pro-EU voters are now more likely to turn out than people backing a Brexit.

But it shows that Leave is still making gains on policies such as the economy, suggesting that if the Brexit campaign’s supporters can be motivated to turn out and vote, the result of the referendum is too close to call.

Sir Lynton, who masterminded both Mr Cameron’s general election victory and Boris Johnson’s two London mayoral election wins, says: “All the signs of ORB’s latest and final poll point to a referendum that will truly come down to the wire.

“Since the start of this polling series in March, Leave has seen steady improvements across a variety of attributes, ranging from the economy to credibility. However, it has also failed to quash the almost ubiquitous percep- tion that it is the riskier of the two options.” It came as:

The leader of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union was accused of a “morally unacceptable” plot to use Mrs Cox’s death to make the case for Remain and “call out” Brexit supporters.

The Home Office warned that Britain’s immigration system risks being undermined after a judge ruled that officials cannot detain asylum seekers they believe are posing as children without evidence.

Boris Johnson suggested that Nigel Farage is “bigoted” and “xenophobic”, after controversy following a Ukip poster warning that Europe is at “breaking point” because of migrants.

The pound rallied and the FTSE 100 recorded its biggest one-day gain in four months amid signs that the markets believe a Remain vote is increasingly likely.

Steve Hilton, David Cameron’s former adviser, said last night that the Prime Minister was told by civil servants that his immigration target was “impossible” four years ago, but continued to make the promise.

George Osborne, the Chancellor, refused to rule out suspending the markets in the hours after a Brexit vote.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, insisted he will not be to blame if Britain leaves the EU after claims from his own MPs that he has not done enough to support the Remain campaign.

George Soros, the business magnate, warned that the value of sterling could fall by more than 15 per cent in the event of a Brexit.

Mr Johnson will today take on Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, in the final televised debate of the referendum in front of a 6,000-strong audience in Wembley Arena.

Today’s poll for The Daily Telegraph finds that turnout will be crucial to the result of the referendum and that Remain voters are becoming increasingly motivated as polling day approaches. It finds that turnout among Remain voters has risen by nine points in the last week to 69 per cent.

Meanwhile, turnout among Leave voters has fallen by four points to 64 per cent.

Last week’s boost for the Leave campaign in a series of polls appears to have lessened Brexit-backers’ motivation to go to the polls on Thursday. Leave voters’ expectation of a victory has increased from 24 per cent last week to 39 per cent today, the poll finds.

Meanwhile, 47 per cent of Remain voters expect Mr Cameron’s campaign to win, a fall from 54 per cent last week.

Sir Lynton writes: “This could be contributing to complacency among Leave voters – the same complacency problem I’ve previously highlighted as a potential threat for the Remain campaign – that is driving down the importance of voting on Thursday and, in

turn, negatively affecting Leavers’ motivations to head to the polling booths.

“Alternately, it could be motivating Remainers who didn’t think their vote was needed to decide they better show up. As I pointed out in my first column, the side that is most effective in motivating their voters to turn out on the 23rd will be the side that emerges victorious.”

The poll finds that Leave has significantly improved its position in policy areas such as the economy and national security. When asked which vote “will create a stronger economy”, 40 per cent of voters now say Leave and 45 per cent say Remain. In May, Remain had a 21-point lead on the economy.

In a significant shift, Sir Lynton’s analysis finds that “staying in the EU is now seen as the riskier security option when it comes to terrorism”, with 40 per cent of voters saying Remain “will expose the UK to a greater risk of terrorism”, up eight points in the past week. Of those surveyed, 33 per cent said a Brexit will leave Britain more at risk, a fall of 6 per cent.

However, Leave is still seen by voters as the riskier option as a whole, according to the survey.

When asked which campaign “is a risk”, Remain has fallen one point to 27 per cent, with Leave gaining two points in the last week to 56 per cent.

Yesterday, Boris Johnson suggested that Nigel Farage is “bigoted” and “xenophobic”, in a strong attack on the Ukip leader ahead of this week’s referendum. Mr Johnson was asked during an interview with ITV if he “likes” Mr Farage’s view of Britain, in the wake of a controversial Ukip poster that has been compared by senior Conservatives to Nazi propaganda.

The poster, which depicts hundreds of refugees and migrants who have arrived in the EU walking in a line with the words “breaking point” overlaid, was released last Thursday. Mr Johnson replied: “If you mean, do I believe in a narrow-minded, insular, bigoted, xenophobic sort of Britain, no, I certainly don’t but I think a lot of Ukip people would say that that’s not their vision either.”

In an attempt to distance his campaign from Mr Farage, Mr Johnson on Sunday called for an amnesty on illegal immigrants in an attempt to “neutralise” extremists who are “playing politics with migration”.