Both sides know that every vote counts in a race too close to call

Final poll confirms complacency will lose the battle, says Sir Lynton Crosby in a last column before the referendum

In the final ORB poll for The Daily Telegraph before referendum day, the Remain campaign sees a significant boost in support among definite voters to open up a seven percentage point net lead, attracting 53 per cent of the vote among definite voters compared with Leave’s 46 per cent.

This represents an eight point reversal from last week, when Leave held a one point lead among definite voters with 49 per cent to Remain’s 48 per cent. The last time Remain had such a large lead among those certain to vote was almost exactly one month ago, when it attracted 55 per cent of definite voters and enjoyed a net lead of 13 points.

Among all voters, however, the picture is slightly different. This week Remain is stable, attracting 49 per cent of the vote among the entire electorate, while Leave has increased its share by three points to 47 per cent.

Remain’s lead of two points is the smallest it has been since this ORB poll series began in March.

This is not the first time that weekon-week trends among all and definite voters have diverged. A few weeks ago it seemed that Remain’s lead among all voters had increased just when Leave had made gains among definite voters. What causes this to happen?

From the outset of this column, I’ve continually emphasised the importance of examining turnout trends, and especially how they pertain to certain demographic groups. This week is no different. Overall turnout has jumped to 65 per cent from 62 per cent last week, driven in part by a significant increase in the number of Remainers who are certain to come out to vote on Thursday.

Among this group, turnout has risen by nine points to 69 per cent. Meanwhile turnout among Leavers has dropped off by four points to 64 per cent, opening up their five-point net turnout deficit – the first time turnout has been lower among Leave voters than Remain voters.

This trend is explained by a dramatic shift in expectations. Since the first ORB poll in March, Remain has continually held a sizeable lead when it comes to which side is expected to emerge victorious on referendum day. At its peak in mid-May, Remain had a 47-point net lead over Leave when all voters were asked who they expected to win. As ever, it is important to remember that polls operate within margins of error often of several per cent, so we must consider changes carefully. But for the first time, under half (47 per cent) of all respondents expect Remain to win the referendum while almost two in five (39 per cent) believe Leave will emerge on top. This could be contributing to complacency among Leave voters – the same complacency problem I’ve previously highlighted as a potential threat for the Remain campaign – that is driving down the importance of voting on Thursday and, in turn, negatively affecting Leavers’ motivations to head to the polling booths. Alternately, it could be motivating Remainers who did not think their vote was needed to decide they better show up. As I pointed out in my first column, the side that is most effective in motivating their voters to turn out will be the side that emerges victorious. Whether this poll, and other published polls showing the same trend towards Remain, will now have the same effect motivating Leave voters that last week’s polls had motivating Remain voters, only time will tell. But it is clear that polls are now an actor in elections and referendums, not just a metric of public opinion. Meanwhile, the vote is hardening up. Only 4 per cent of the electorate is now undecided and 13 per cent are soft voters – those likely to change their minds before Thursday. This includes 10 per cent who are soft Remainers, down eight points from last week, and 9 per cent who are soft Leavers, down six points.

When it comes to policy attributes, Leave has significantly improved its position on the economy and safety. On which side “will create a stronger economy for the UK,” Remain garners 45 per cent of support to Leave’s 40 per cent, narrowing Remain’s net lead by six points. To put this into perspective, Remain held a 12-point lead when ORB started asking the question in April, a lead that grew to 21 points at its peak in mid-May.

On which side “will expose the UK to a greater risk of terrorism,” Remain has increased its vote share by eight points to 40 per cent while Leave has decreased its share by six points to 33 per cent. Staying in the EU is now seen as riskier when it comes to terrorism.

Despite this, Brexit is still widely viewed as the riskier choice as a whole. On which side “is a risk,” Remain falls one point to 27 per cent while Leave gains another two points to 56 per cent. This is a concern that Leave has continually struggled to mollify, with the proportion of those viewing Brexit as the riskier option never dropping below 52 per cent during ORB’s polling series.

But on attributes pertaining to the campaigns themselves, Leave has made noticeable gains. When it comes to who is “running the best campaign with a clear message”, Remain attracts 32 per cent to Leave’s 38 per cent, opening up a six point advantage for Leave. The first time this question was posed, Remain held a 14-point lead. This shows that despite protestations about the Leave camp running a “divisive” campaign, voters are hearing their message loudly and clearly.

On who “you have heard from the most”, Remain drops three points to 33 per cent while Leave increases by seven points to 32 per cent, narrowing Remain’s lead to a single point from its 19-point net advantage in April.

And on which side “seems credible and trustworthy,” Remain increases by four points to 39 per cent while Leave increases by seven points to 36 per cent, again reducing Remain’s lead. But while the Remain camp’s lead on credibility has fallen among the electorate as a whole, it has increased among definite voters. This is a contributing factor in driving turnout and improving the Remain camp’s position among those certain to vote.

All the signs of ORB’s latest and final poll point to a referendum that will truly come down to the wire. Since the start of this polling series in March, Leave has seen steady improvements across a variety of attributes, ranging from the economy to credibility.

However, it has also failed to quash the almost ubiquitous perception that it is the riskier of the two options. As Thursday draws near, it could be polls like this one that are crucial in deciding turnout among each side’s supporters and thus integral to determining the winner.

The referendum outcome is uncertain. I wish Britain the best.